The Major League Baseball season is just two days old, but there have already been some impressive performances from individual players, like Tyler O’Neill homering for the sixth consecutive Opening Day (extending his own record) and Austin Wells homering in his first ever at-bat as a leadoff hitter for the New York Yankees.
We narrowly missed a 3-0 clean sweep of our player prop wagers on Thursday, with the only loss coming when Paul Skenes issued two walks in his last inning of work. Nevertheless, we are looking to build off of Thursday’s profitable day with another trio of best bets.
Read on for our top MLB player prop bets for Saturday, March 29th.
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Saturday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(MLB player prop bet odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Nestor Cortes Over 4.5 strikeouts (-108)
There may not be any visiting pitcher more excited for their start today than Nestor Cortes, who faces his former Yankee teammates after being a part of the trade that brought closer Devin Williams to the Bronx.
Cortes has pitched to a 3.80 ERA over his seven big league seasons, which is still likely to shock many considering his fastball “only” routinely tops out at 92 mph. But New York’s hitters will get their first looks at Cortes’ devious arm angles, which are a big reason his fastball ranked in the 94th percentile of run value last season, per Baseball Savant.
The Yankees struck out a combined eight times against Brewers ace Freddy Peralta on Thursday, and Milwaukee manager Pat Murphy will likely give Cortes a longer leash than he normally would in this game knowing how much this start means to his southpaw.
Colton Cowser to hit a home run (+425)
The Baltimore Orioles became just the fourth team since 1901 to hit six home runs on Opening Day, joining the 2019 Dodgers, 2018 White Sox, and 1988 Mets. I am looking to back one of their sluggers to go yard again, with the best option being Colton Cowser.
Cowser is the only Orioles hitter with a career home run against Blue Jays starter Max Scherzer. Cowser hit 24 home runs in his first full season in the big leagues last year, and is a great value play to go deep against Scherzer, whose worst two HR/9 rates of his career have come over the last two seasons.
Seth Lugo Under 4.5 strikeouts (-120)
Seth Lugo is coming off a season where he made a career-high 33 starts and led the American League with 836 batters faced while finishing second in the Cy Young voting. But Lugo also earned those votes primarily because of his durability, 16 wins, and low WHIP (1.089) as opposed to his overpowering stuff.
Lugo’s 7.9 K/9 rate last year was his lowest since 2017 when he barely threw over 100 innings for the Mets. Against a Guardians team that tends to make contact better than most, look for Cleveland to work his pitch count and put balls in play at a high rate, leading to an Under for Lugo’s strikeouts. Lugo is also a typically slower starter from a strikeout standpoint, as his 8.2 K/9 rate in March and April is much lower than his 9.2 and 9.3 career rates in May and June, respectively.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.
