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MLB Player To Hit A Home Run Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions (4/19)

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There is nothing better than day baseball. Below are four heavy hitters I believe have a great chance of leaving the ballpark. With 6-7 day games this afternoon, there is no better way to show off some muscle. Sun’s out, Guns out!

Wednesday’s Best To Hit A Home Run Prop Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Ryan Mountcastle (+450)

Ryan Mountcastle and Baltimore will be facing left-handed pitcher Mackenzie Gore (2-0 .300 ERA), and lucky for Mountcastle, he has been smashing left-handed pitching this season. Among qualified hitters, Mountcastle leads the MLB in ISO (.722).

His splits also tell the same story. Against RHP, he is only hitting .164 with two home runs with 17 strikeouts. Conversely, when facing a left-handed pitcher, Mountcastle average jumps to .389 with four home runs and only three strikeouts.

Kyle Schwarber (+205)

Schwarber gets to go against a very inconsistent Mike Clevinger. While Clevinger is 2-0 with a 2.20 ERA, he is due for some regression. The advanced metrics will show that he has been fortunate over his first couple of starts.

Despite having a lower ERA of 2.20, he has been able to leave men on base 83% of the time, but not only that, his xERA and xFIP are above five and creeping up to six. With an xFIP of 5.82, that’s more of an accurate representation of where Clevinger’s ERA should be.

Combine his lucky start with a Phillies lineup that is starting to find its groove, and the regression for Clevinger could be seen tonight.

George Springer (+370) & Matt Chapman (+310)

George Springer loves playing against his former teammate, Luis Garcia. In a small sample size, Springer is 3 for 4 with two home runs against Garcia, and I think that trend may continue tonight.

Luis Garcia has been roughed up in the first three starts of 2023. Garica is 0-2 with an ERA over seven and has allowed at least six hits and one homerun in every one of his starts.

While Chapman hasn’t had the same success as Springer against Garcia, he has been one of the best hitters in the league to this point.

Matt Chapman Ranks in MLB (among qualified players)

Average: .415 (2nd)
BABIP: .489 (2nd)
ISO: .369 (5th)
wOBA: .530 (1st)
wRC+: 252 (1st)
WAR: 1.4 (1st)

Check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

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