Navigate

MLB Player To Hit A Home Run Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions (7/8)

by |

Here are our favorite home run prop bets for Saturday’s slate.

Saturday’s Best Player To Hit A Home Run Prop Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Christian Yelich (+380) & Willy Adames (+300)

Today the Reds will be starting Luke Weaver, and if you have been following along with my props this season, you know I will fade Weaver any chance I get. Among starting pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched, Weaver has the 3rd highest ERA (6.72) and the 7th highest HR/9 (1.97) in the MLB. He has allowed four home runs over his last five starts on the road.

Christian Yelich leads the Brewers in ISO (.187) and 3rd most HRs (9) against right-handed pitchers. Yelich is one of the few players that have faced Luke Weaver, going 2-6 with two home runs. 

As for Willy Adames, he has 10 HRs against righties, which is second most on the team, only behind Rowdy Tellez. His .170 ISO is lower than I would like, but his raw power is hard to ignore.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+390) & Daulton Varsho (+500)

Matt Manning is making his 5th start of the season, and this will already be the second time he’s faced the Toronto Blue Jays. On April 11th, Manning pitched six innings giving up four runs on six hits, including three HRs.

Manning is 2-1 with a 4.84 ERA. While that ERA is nothing to brag about, his advanced numbers are even worse; his 5.93 xFIP and 5.30 are some of the highest among today’s pitchers.

Vladimir Guerrero’s home run numbers are a bit strange to me. He must enjoy the boo-birds, as 13 of his 15 HRs have been on the road. He also leads the team in HRs against RHP.

Imagine it’s Thanksgiving Day. The giant turkey is removed from the oven; you are starving, your mouth is watering, and you may even start drooling; that’s how Daulton Varsho feels when he has a chance to face an RHP.

All 12 of Daulton Varsho’s home runs have come against a right-handed pitcher, and he is 4th on the team in ISO (.182). Like his buddy Vlad, he may enjoy the boo-birds as 9 of his 12 HRs have also come on the road.

Check out our other best bets for Saturday:

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App