MLB Playoffs No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (10/14)
Thanks to a rainout of Game 2 of the Guardians-Yankees series, we have three games on the schedule for today. The Yankees are up 1-0 in their series, while the other two series are currently tied at 1-1. Let’s take a look at the best NRFI bets of the day.
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View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees – 1:07 ET
The line on this one is extremely high, but it’s for good reason. Nestor Cortes is taking the mound for the Yankees, and the left-hander has been one of the best stories of 2022. Despite what doesn’t seem like overwhelmingly elite stuff, Cortes has an ERA below three, and the estimators largely agree with his success. There is a solid K-rate and low HR and BB numbers. While he may not be an ace, he is a well above-average number two type and can easily dominate a game. One of the most consistent bets we have made in this article is the Guardians against left-handed pitchers. They are a bottom-five offense by wRC+ against left-handed pitching, and Cortes is one of the best left-handers in baseball.
For Cleveland, they will send ace Shane Bieber to the mound. Bieber has somewhat remade his skillset in 2022. After years of being known for having elite command despite slightly elevated walk rates, diminishing velocity has changed Bieber. He does not post the otherworldly K-rates that he had in his CY Young season, so he has had to lower his walk rates to compensate for the lack of Ks. However, success has once again followed the righty. He also has an ERA below three, and his 0.227 wOBA allowed the first time through the order is one of the best in the league. This bet is worth the juice.
Pick: NRFI -175
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres – 8:37 ET
While I am not a huge fan of this bet, the fact that the Braves starter is in flux makes it a bit difficult to write up that bet. So let’s discuss the Padres and Dodgers. Blake Snell had a rough first outing of the 2022 playoffs. The issue for Snell was a common one that he has run into over the course of his career, where his control abandoned him. The Dodgers are an elite offense and are patient enough to wait out Snell and make him work. However, I think he bounces back in this one and can hold the Dodgers down in the first.
Tony Gonsolin takes the mound for the Dodgers in the bottom of the first, and he has had a magical 2022 season. While his numbers are a bit of smoke and mirrors, the ERA estimators still view him as a mid-three ERA pitcher. His wOBA allowed the first time through the order is an elite 0.225, which once again makes him a fantastic bet in this space. While better thus far in the postseason, the Padres’ offense has not been a dominant one across the entire season, and despite the presence of Juan Soto and Manny Machado, they are not an offense that truly scares me. This matchup appears to be a good one for NRFI bets in a limited slate.
Pick: NRFI -150
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