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MLB Playoffs No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Monday (Guardians vs. Yankees)

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Game 5, Winner-Take-All! These are some of the best words we, as fans, can hear in any sport. Today, the Cleveland Guardians are taking on the New York Yankees with an ALCS birth on the line. Let’s take a look at this game from the NRFI side of things.

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Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees – 7:07 ET

There will likely be quick hooks on both sides of this game today, as there is no tomorrow, but that largely does not matter for our purposes. Jameson Taillon is getting the start for New York, and the right-hander has had a solid season. He does not have elite strikeout numbers, but he’s typically been able to succeed by limiting free passes. His issue, however, has been the long ball. With the way the Guardians’ offense is constructed, the long ball is not a major concern. They thrive on stringing hits together, and Taillon should be able to keep them from doing just that. He has a solid, although not spectacular, 0.283 wOBA allowed the first time through the order. The issue may be the other side of this game.

For Cleveland, Aaron Civale gets the nod. Civale’s surface numbers are disappointing, but the ERA estimators are fans of the righty. He strikes out about a batter per inning and has low walk rates. He has an extremely low LOB%, contributing to his underwhelming performance. Coming off a huge Game 4 win, the Yankees will be looking to keep their momentum going in this one. Civale has also allowed more homers than he would like, which makes him a poor matchup against this powerful Yankee offense. On the bright side, he has allowed a 0.277 wOBA the first time through the order, which is actually better than the numbers for Taillon. While I do not feel great about this one, Civale is talented enough to make it work.

Pick: NRFI -135

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