MLB Playoffs No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (10/12)
After an eventful first day of the MLB Division Series, we have two games on the slate today. With the new playoff format, the American League has a full day off today to ensure there are no open days on the schedule, so we have two National League games to pick from.
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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves – 4:35 PM
After a tough Game 1 loss, the Braves send Kyle Wright to the mound to try to right the ship and get them back even before the series heads to Philly. Wright has been a revelation in 2022, with a huge breakout season finally hitting on the promise many thought he had as a top-five draft pick. The biggest improvement Wright has made is in his control. In his short MLB stints, he had a BB/9 of over five. This season, he has dropped that down below three. He has been solid across the board with a wOBA allowed below .300 each time through the order. The Phillies’ offense is good and had an explosion in Game 1, but as long as Wright can limit walks, he should be able to keep them off the board.
The Phillies will try to take control of this series by sending ace Zack Wheeler out to take the mound. The right-hander has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last few seasons. He strikes out a hitter per inning and does an excellent job of limiting free passes, allowing him to post elite ERAs. The Braves offense is still one of the very best in baseball and will likely be looking to get up early after the way Game 1 went. However, Wheeler has allowed a wOBA of 0.265 the first time through the order, so I expect him to keep that going today.
Pick: NRFI -150
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers – 8:37 PM
After their Game 1 win, the Dodgers are looking to add on and take a commanding 2-0 series lead. They are sending future HOFer Clayton Kershaw to the mound. Sometimes I think we forget about just how dominant Kershaw has been in his career. Despite the injuries over the last seasons, he still has a K/9 of over nine and a BB/9 below two. His wOBA allowed the first time through the order is 0.255. The Padres have a wRC+ of 106 this season against left-handers, but while they are above average, they are still middle of the road overall.
Yu Darvish is getting the ball for the Padres coming off his solid start against the Mets in the Wild Card round. After a rough first season in San Diego, Darvish righted the ship by lowering his walks and homers and was excellent for the Padres. He actually tends to struggle the first time through the order relative to the rest of the game with a wOBA over .300 allowed. Once he settles in, he’s tough to beat. However, with him facing the Dodgers’ offense, it may be difficult for him to settle in. This is a much less appealing bet than the Phillies/Braves one, but there still may be value in the number.
Pick: NRFI -155
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