MLB Playoffs No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (10/19)
The Yankees are entering a rare situation where they are tasked with Game One of the ALCS just about 24 hours after winning the ALDS over Cleveland. On the NL side, the Phillies are sending their second ace out to try to take a commanding 2-0 series lead over the Padres.
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Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres 4:35 ET
After their Game One loss, the Padres will be sending Blake Snell to the mound. Snell has had an up-and-down season, which has carried to the postseason. After a shaky Wild Card start, he was excellent against the Dodgers in the DS. Snell’s issue is and always will be his walk problems which can become an issue at any time. However, he typically starts strong as evidenced by his wOBA allowed of 0.224 the first time through the order.
Aaron Nola is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He posts elite K-rates and pairs those with small walk numbers. However, his ERA never seems to match his estimators. He can struggle at times with BABIP problems at the hands of the Phillies’ defensive woes but the team has been much better lately on that front. He is absolutely elite the first time through the order with a sub-200 wOBA allowed. This combined with Snell’s early game success should have this one scoreless through the first few frames.
New York Yankees at Houston Astros 7:37 ET
As stated earlier in this piece, the Yankees may experience a bit of a hangover in this Game One. That could be bad news going up against Justin Verlander. The likely CY Young winner struggled in his start in the DS but he is still one of the best arms in baseball. He does not allow free passes and does not allow homers which makes him a fantastic matchup for this Yankees’ offense. They surpassed the Guardians on the backs of a top of home run power and it is really the main way they are able to score. Verlander’s career HR/9 in the playoffs is higher than his regular season one but I think the Yankees start a bit slow and this allows Verlander to have a clean first go of the order.
Jameson Taillon was slated to start the first attempt at Game Five in the last series but a rainout allowed the Yankees to use Nestor Cortes in that one. That moved Taillon into this one. The leash will likely be short for Taillon and Domingo German may be ready to go early, but Taillon has had a solid season in 2022. He is not the ace we once dreamed he could be but he is a solid back of the rotation piece. The top of the Astros’ lineup is as good as any and that leaves him with a tough task. Taillon has a solid but not elite wOBA allowed of 0.283 the first time through the order and as long as he can keep the ball out of the air, he should have the ability to get through this one cleanly. After their last long layoff, the Astros offense came out a bit flat.
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