MLB Playoffs No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions for Thursday: Mariners vs. Astros (10/13)
The A.L. teams return to action this afternoon as the Mariners try to get back into the win column against the Astros while the Guardians attempt to take down the Yankees in the Bronx. Each game features an electric pitching matchup, and I’m locking in No Runs First Inning (NRFI) for both games. Let’s dive into the stats and trends that matter for Mariners vs. Astros.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
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MLB Playoffs No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions for Thursday
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
The Astros found themselves down four runs on three different occasions in Tuesday’s series opener, but they still found a way to battle back and secure a win. An Alex Bregman two-run shot in the 8th brought Houston within two runs while a walk-off three-run moonshot from Yordan Alvarez ultimately won the game 8-7. These divisional foes are back at it at 3:37 p.m. ET from Minute Maid Park with a pitching matchup featuring Luis Castillo and Framber Valdez.
Castillo’s made one start this postseason, and that was a winning effort in game one of the Wild Card Round against the Blue Jays. The right-hander tossed 7.1 scoreless innings and allowed six hits while punching out five batters. As for his regular season numbers, Castillo finished at 8-6 with a 2.99 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.
Valdez had a dominant regular season and finished at 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA (11th) and 1.16 WHIP (24th). The southpaw was so effective that he recorded 25 straight quality starts and broke the single-season record for quality starts (deGrom, 24). Most recently, Valdez faced the Phillies to finish the regular season and went 5.0 innings, holding them scoreless and allowing just two hits and a walk. He struck out 10 batters in the winning effort.
Valdez squared off against the M’s twice en route to his historic season. The lefty threw for 13.2 innings and allowed six earned runs (3.95 ERA), and they hit .255 against him. While those aren’t dominant numbers, it’s worth mentioning that the current Seattle roster is hitting just .205 (18-88) against Valdez with no home runs, no triples, and two doubles. On the flip side, we don’t have much head-to-head data for Castillo. He’s only faced four Astros, and they’re 3-10 (.300) against him with no extra-base hits. We can rely on Castillo’s recent form, though, as he’s only surrendered one earned run over his last two starts (13.1 IP). Let’s ride with NRFI in H-Town this afternoon.
Bet: Mariners at Astros NRFI (-145 via DraftKings)
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