Top MLB Playoffs Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (Padres vs. Phillies)

With only four teams left in the postseason, we have just one game on the schedule in the MLB.

It’s a pivotal Game 3 between the San Diego Padres vs. the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLCS. Both teams will send out their number three starters for Game 3, which will be played at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.

The Phillies stole a game on the road earlier in the series. Can the Padres do the same and earn back home field advantage? Here are our best bets for tonight’s game.

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(Odds courtesy DraftKings)

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San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Ranger Suarez will get the call for the Phillies tonight. He’s a left-handed starter with a 2.70 ERA in the postseason. Over the last 30 days, Suarez has had an xFIP of 4.83, which is pretty high. He’s also struck out just 18.6% of batters while walking 11.6% over the last month.

Suarez has still earned over 49% of grounders and has limited line drives to 20.8% when balls are batted into play. He’s been consistent throughout the year, but recently, things have changed.

His last 72 righties have hit a .369 wOBA with an ISO of .281. He’s also faced 14 lefties in the previous 30 days and has allowed a .534 wOBA and ISO of .417. Usually, Suarez is excellent against lefties, but he’s had trouble with them lately.

The Padres have hit a .189 ISO and wOBA of .339 against lefties over their last 30 days against lefties. Manny Machado, Wil Myers, and Trent Grisham have shown off their power, while Austin Nola has chipped in with a high wOBA against lefties and Myers and Machado.

San Diego has hit under 35% of grounders, and nearly 23% of line drives against lefties with its projected order. If Suarez can’t induce a high rate of grounders, the Padres will be in business.

On the other hand, Joe Musgrove will take the hill for the Padres. He’s 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA in the postseason. Over the last 30 days, Musgrove has had a 3.65 xFIP. He’s struck out over 27% of batters and has limited line drives to under 18% over 30 days. He’s not a high-ground ball pitcher, but he’s limited extra-base hits along with wOBA to both sides recently.

The top of the order for the Phillies has done damage against righties, including Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto, and Bryce Harper. However, after those four, the production drops off in the Philadelphia lineup against righties.

The top of the lineup is already going to have difficulty hitting Musgrove. The bottom of the order will be a piece of cake for Musgrove, who has looked brilliant in the postseason.

I’ll take the Padres on the road and the Under 7.5. San Diego will score some runs, but not enough to push this game over.

Bet: Padres (-115 at DraftKings )
Bet: Under 7.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

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