MLB Playoffs Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (Diamondbacks vs. Phillies)

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Just one game on the schedule for today, and it’s Game 2 of the NLCS. The defending National League Champions Phillies are one step closer to returning to the World Series with a Game 1 win. That gave the Diamondbacks their first loss of the playoffs, and now we’ll see how they respond.

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(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Arizona Diamondbacks (+130) at Philadelphia Phillies (-155) | O/U 8.0 (+100/-120)

The Phillies picked up a big win at home as the power continues to shine. Nick Castellanos now has five home runs in the last three games, Bryce Harper gave himself a birthday gift with a home run, and Kyle Schwarber got his first hit since Game 1 of the ALDS. This game broke the tie and has Philadelphia ahead of Arizona in home runs with 16 in the playoffs. They don't need to rely on their power because their pitching has been phenomenal, and their 1.53 ERA leads the playoffs.

They'll have Aaron Nola on the mound, who had one of his worst seasons with his 4.46 ERA being the third worst of his career (min. 25 starts), and the 25.5% strikeout rate is the lowest since 2016. In the playoffs, he's flipped a switch, allowing two earned and striking out 12 in two starts, with the Nola earning two wins. In his one start against the Diamondbacks this year, he went six innings, allowed four earned, and struck out nine in the win.

The Diamondbacks had a tough 5-0 hole they had to overcome in Game 1, and they managed to get three runs but only scattered four hits, with Geraldo Perdomo’s home run being the only extra base hit.

Merrill Kelly will get the start and was one of their best pitchers, as he led the rotation with a 3.29 ERA and 9.5 strikeouts per nine. In his only start in the playoffs, he shut down the Dodgers, going 6.1 scoreless innings, and allowed three hits. He saw the Phillies earlier this year and went six innings, allowing three earned and struck out seven in the no-decision.

This will be a more competitive game, and the pitching matchup will keep it close. Nola turned it around and had a 2.60 ERA in his final three starts, and Kelly allowed more than one earned in only two of his final seven starts. It’s tough to predict how this game will finish, so I'm leaning toward a lower score to start this game.

Pick: Under 4.5 Runs in the first five innings (-140)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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