MLB Playoffs Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (10/18)
Last night, the Yankees and Guardians were set to play Game 5 in the ALDS. Unfortunately, the game was rained out and will now be played at 4:07 pm ET.
There are a lot of variables that have changed in this game. Most pitchers are healthy enough to take the mound when some wouldn’t have been yesterday.
Meanwhile, the Padres and Phillies will play the first game of the NLCS tonight. The game is scheduled for 8:03 at Petco Park in San Diego. That should be a good one.
Here are a couple of same-game parlays to consider for today’s action.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
MLB Playoffs Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees
- Leg 1: Nestor Cortes Under 4.5 K’s (-152)
- Leg 2: Aaron Judge 2+ Total Bases (+110)
- Leg 3: Oswaldo Cabrera 1+ Hit (-170)
Nestor Cortes will take the mound for the Yankees. He pitched on Friday and will slot in for today’s game with an extra day of rest.
Cortes has struck out 26.7% of batters faced over the last 30 days, but he only figures to pitch up to five innings in this game. New York got an extra day of rest for its bullpen and will now be able to use its top guys.
Meanwhile, the Guardians haven’t announced a starter when writing this. Initially, the Guardians said that Aaron Civale would get the start regardless if there were a rain out. But I’m not so sure about that. We could see Shane Bieber in some capacity.
I’d assume that Civale leads things off. Maybe he can go three innings and get through the lineup once. Then I’d like to assume Bieber would get the next five innings, with the final inning going to Emmanuel Clase. That’s one of many different approaches that the Guardians can take.
But the Guardians will have a right-handed pitcher to start the game. Aaron Judge has hit a .313 ISO and wOBA of .436 against righties over his last 85 plate appearances. He’s been clutch all year and could provide a spark for the Yankees today.
Meanwhile, Bieber has had a high wOBA to lefties over the last 30 days, while Civale has allowed a high ISO to lefties in the previous 30 days. Oswaldo Cabrera will be one of three lefties in the lineup for the Yankees. He’s hitting a .333 ISO and wOBA of .395 over the last 30 days against righties. I’ll take him to get a hit in this game.
Parlay Odds: +447 via FanDuel
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
- Leg 1: Zack Wheeler Over 4.5 K’s (-140)
- Leg 2: Kyle Schwarber 2+ Total Bases (+140)
- Leg 3: Bryce Harper 2+ Total Bases (+125)
Here’s a game where we have much more information.
It’s Zack Wheeler against Yu Darvish in the first game of the NLCS.
Wheeler has been substantially better analytically for the Phillies. The right-hander has had a 2.52 xFIP over the last 30 days. He’s struck out 24.5% of batters while only walking 3.1%. On top of that, Wheeler has earned 63.9% of ground balls over the last month and has allowed under 17% of line drives.
The Padres’ lineup has struck out 24.9% of the time against righties. Manny Machado, Wil Myers, and Trent Grisham have recently struck out at very high rates against righties.
On the other hand, Darvish has had an xFIP of 3.52 over the last month. He’s struck out 26.8% of batters and has walked 4.1% in that 30-day window.
The right-hander has only induced 27.7% of grounders but has kept line drives down to 17%. Still, against lefties, Darvish has allowed a .329 wOBA and ISO of .279 over his last 64 plate appearances against them.
Therefore, I’ll take a chance on the two most powerful lefties in the MLB, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. Schwarber has a .444 ISO over the last month against righties, while Harper has hit an ISO of .194 against righties in that same period.
Parlay Odds: +845 via FanDuel
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