MLB Playoffs Same Game Parlay Picks & Predictions for Thursday: Mariners vs. Astros (10/13)
The ALDS has two scheduled games today. The afternoon game will be between the Mariners and Astros, while the Yankees will take on the Guardians in the night game. Let’s take a look at my favorite same game parlay for Mariners vs. Astros.
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MLB Playoffs Same Game Parlay Picks & Predictions for Thursday
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
- Leg 1: Framber Valdez Over 5.5 K’s (-126)
- Leg 2: Luis Castillo Over 5.5 K’s (+110)
- Leg 3: Yordan Alvarez 1+ Hit (-190)
Framber Valdez will get the start for the Astros today. The left-hander is one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball. Over the last 30 days, Valdez has had a 2.80 xFIP. He’s struck out 25.5% of batters and has walked just 6.1%.
Valdez is primarily a ground ball pitcher, but he’s also got plenty of strikeout potential against Seattle. The Mariners have five batters striking out at least 25.9% of the time against lefties over the last 30 days in the projected lineup. Ty France, Mitch Haniger, Eugenio Suarez, Dylan Moore, and JP Crawford have all consistently struggled to make contact with the ball over the last 30 days.
As long as Valdez faces the Seattle lineup twice, he should be able to earn six strikeouts.
On the other hand, Luis Castillo will get the start for Seattle. He’s got a 3.54 xFIP and has been just as good as Valdez. The right-hander, like Valdez, is a ground ball pitcher, but lately, he’s only earned 48.3% of grounders. That’s still an above-average number.
Castillo will also face five Houston batters who have struck out at least 20.9% of the time against righties in the last 30 days. With that said, I like Castillo to hang around for at least six innings. If he can do that, he’ll get those six strikeouts.
However, he’s allowed an ISO of .163 to lefties over his last 54 plate appearances. The one lefty that has destroyed righties recently is Yordan Alvarez. Alvarez is hitting a .378 ISO and wOBA of .463 against righties in the last month. I’ll add him to get a hit.
Parlay Odds: +481 via FanDuel
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