MLB Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (4/12)
Friday brings a full 15-game MLB slate. With it comes several opportunities to build our bankrolls with Same-Game Parlays.
FanDuel Sportsbook also offers a promo where all customers get a 30% boost on an SGP today, so I included one specifically taking advantage of this promo.
Here are a few of my favorite SGPs for Friday's slate.
Friday’s MLB Best Same Game Parlays
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers
- Leg 1: Tarik Skubal Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-121)
- Leg 2: Pablo Lopez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+110)
- Leg 3: Pablo Lopez Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-169)
The Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers were rained out on Thursday. They will be back at it on Friday, with each team bringing their respective aces to the hill.
Tarik Skubal has racked up 15 strikeouts through two starts, and I expect him to keep up that pace on Friday. Even before Skubal emerged as the Tigers' top starter, he enjoyed success against the Twins. Current Twin hitters have struck out in 18 of 47-lifetime career plate appearances against Skubal.
Pablo Lopez struck out seven batters in his first start but just two last time out. We are getting a bit of a discount on Lopez's strikeouts based on his last outing. I will attribute his last start to facing Cleveland. The Guardians are notoriously difficult to strike out. The Tigers do not have the same reputation, especially when facing Lopez.
Lopez faced Detroit twice last season. He recorded 18 total strikeouts in those starts. Tiger hitters have struck out 20 times in just 64 plate appearances when facing Lopez. I expect him to rack up plenty of punchouts on Friday night.
I also anticipate him limiting the number of hits in this matchup. The Tigers are hitting just .226 against right-handed pitching this year. Given their issues facing righties this year, and Lopez in particular, I think Detroit will have a difficult time stringing hits together on Friday.
Parlay Odds: +420 via Caesars Sportsbook
ÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂTexas Rangers @ Houston Astros
- Leg 1: Over 8.5 Total Runs (-163)
- Leg 2: Evan Carter Over 0.5 Hits (-184)
- Leg 3: Jose Altuve Over 0.5 Hits (-244)
- Leg 4: J.P. France Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-101)
Friday's game between the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros has all the makings of a high-scoring affair. As of Thursday, both teams ranked in the top six in the Major Leagues in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching this season. Each offense has also had success when facing Friday's starting pitcher.
Dane Dunning is 0-3 with a 5.20 in his career versus the Houston Astros. No Astro hitter has enjoyed facing Dunning more than Jose Altuve. Altuve is 7-for-14 with two doubles and a home run lifetime against Dunning. I look for him to add to those numbers on Friday night.
J.P. France has struggled mightily in his career against the Texas Rangers. Texas hitters have a combined .926 OPS in 71 plate appearances against the Astros' righty. In those meetings, France has recorded just 10 total strikeouts. The Rangers have fanned on a league-low 17.5% of plate appearances versus right-handed pitching so far this year. I expect France to go Under his 4.5-strikeout total.
Evan Carter has seen France particularly well in their head-to-head meetings. Carter is 3-for-4 in his career versus France, with all three hits being doubles. I like Carter to record at least one hit on Friday.
This SGP is currently +420 on Caesars Sportsbook. If this price moves in the wrong direction, there are a couple of ways to juice it back up for a more favorable payout. I like taking Texas +3.5 as an alternate run line. Dunning can be a bit shaky at times, but I trust the Texas bats enough versus France to add this leg if necessary. If you go that route, you can also lower the Run Line to Over 6.5 to balance it out.
Parlay Odds: +420 via Caesars Sportsbook
St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks
- Leg 1: Under 12.5 Total Runs (-340)
- Leg 2: Steven Matz Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)
- Leg 3: Brendan Donovan To Record a Hit (-310)
- Leg 4: Corbin Carroll To Hit a Single (-160)
The St. Louis Cardinals are already making their second trip out West this season when they start a three-game set in Arizona on Friday. Steven Matz will take the bump for the Redbirds, and Brandon Pfaadt will oppose him.
Matz has been excellent thus far, ceding just two total runs in two starts to start the year. Pfaadt allowed five runs in his last start, but his underlying metrics suggest some bad luck was involved. He enters Friday's start with a 3.29 xERA and a 2.57 xFIP. While Arizona has hit lefties hard (123 wRC+), I like the idea of taking Under 12.5 total runs as a juice reducer to start this Same-Game Parlay.
Matz has been solid, but he is by no means a strikeout pitcher. He recorded just three strikeouts in each of his first two starts this season. Arizona enters this matchup striking out just 14.7% of the time when facing a left-hander on the mound. Matz has not topped 85 pitches in either of his first two starts, so I have a hard time seeing him register five or more strikeouts in this matchup.
For the final two legs, I am taking Brendan Donovan of the Cardinals to record a hit and Corbin Carroll of the Diamondbacks to hit a single.
Let's start with Donovan. Pfaadt usually attacks left-handed hitters with a combination of four-seam fastballs, changeups and sweepers. Donovan hit just over .300 against those three offerings last season. Pfaadt rarely walks hitters (5.8% career walk rate), so I like the odds of Donovan hitting safely here.
As for Carroll, he has a significant reduction in power, strikeout and walk splits when facing a left-handed pitcher. He has hit a single in 18.7% of plate appearances in his career when facing a lefty, compared to just 12.4% versus righties.
Matz is similar from a pitching standpoint. He has allowed just 53 extra-base hits to left-handed batters in 837 career plate appearances. If Carroll reaches base on Friday, it will likely be via a single.
Parlay Odds: +589 via FanDuel Sportsbook (With a 30% Boost)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: