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MLB Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (3/28)

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Opening Day of the 2024 Major League Baseball season is finally here! We enjoyed the appetizer last week with the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres facing off in a two-game series in Korea. Now we get to the main course! Inclement weather prevents a full slate, but there is plenty of MLB action scheduled for Thursday. With that comes our favorite Same Game Parlay for Thursday's slate.

Thursday's Best MLB Same Game Parlay

(Odds courtesy of ESPNBet Sportsbook)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals

The Los Angeles Dodgers proved last week that they are going to be an incredibly difficult lineup for opposing pitchers to navigate. Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove combined to strike out just five Dodgers in their starts in Korea. The Dodgers’ hitters make pitchers work deep into counts and generally avoid chasing mistakes out of the zone.

Even when hitters do chase against Miles Mikolas, they usually make contact. Opposing hitters had an 85.2% contact rate last season versus the veteran, which was the highest among qualified pitchers. That included a 73.5% O-Contact rate, which measures contact on pitches outside the strike zone. No other qualified pitcher had an O-Contact rate higher than 65.5% last season. I have a hard time imagining Mikolas registering a handful of strikeouts, so I am taking the Under on 4.5 strikeouts as the first leg of my SGP.

For the next two legs, I am taking a pair of Dodgers to record at least two total bases each. I expect both Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman to have big days at the plate against Mikolas and company on Thursday.

Betts had six hits in nine at-bats in Korea and already has 10 total bases to his credit. He has found success in his brief history versus Mikolas (2-for-5), and I expect that trend to continue on Thursday. Mikolas attacks right-handed hitters with four pitches: a four-seam fastball, a sinker, a slider, and a curveball. Betts slugged .579 or higher against all four offerings last season, and his numbers were largely supported by his quality of contact. Betts had an expected slugging percentage (xSLG) of .528 or higher against all four of those pitches last year.

Freeman has also sustained success versus Mikolas throughout their overlapping careers. The Dodgers’ first baseman is 6-for-15 with a double and two home runs in his career against the Cardinals’ right-hander. With Betts and Shohei Ohtani hitting in front of him and Will Smith and Max Muncy likely behind, Freeman should get a fair number of pitches to hit against Mikolas in this matchup. I expect both Freeman and Betts to go Over their respective total base props on Thursday.

If you want a little more bang for your buck, you can add Mikolas to not record a win on Thursday. Given the difficulty he should have against the Dodgers’ lineup, as well as facing the team's new ace Tyler Glasnow, this makes for a reasonable addition to this Same Game Parlay. Adding that leg would change this from a +441 SGP to a +496 SGP.

Parlay Odds: +441

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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