MLB Same Game Parlay Picks: Friday (Padres vs. Dodgers)
The National League Division Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres reaches its conclusion Friday night. The winner will host the New York Mets in Game 1 of the National League Championship Series on Sunday night.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be on the mound for Los Angeles, while former Dodger Yu Darvish takes the hill for the Padres. It will be the first postseason matchup between two Japanese-born starting pitchers in Major League Baseball history.
I have some ideas on how I would like to attack this matchup. So here is my Same Game Parlay (SGP) for this game.
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Friday's Best MLB Same Game Parlay Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
- Leg 1: Yu Darvish Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-325)
- Leg 2: Yu Darvish Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-125)
- Leg 3: Yu Darvish Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-120)
- Leg 4: Luis Arraez Over 0.5 Total Hits (-375)
As you can see, most of my SGP centers around San Diego starter Yu Darvish. I am not fading him in the traditional sense. I think he can be effective when he is on the mound. But I do not expect him to pitch very deep into this ballgame. Before we get to the narratives, let's dive into Darvish's recent performances.
Darvish missed over three months due to injury and personal issues. He has made six starts since returning just over a month ago. He has gone under these benchmarks more often than not.
-Under 5.5 Strikeouts in five of six starts
-Under 4.5 Hits Allowed in five of six starts
-Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed in four of six starts
On Sunday, Darvish went under all three numbers when he defeated the Dodgers in Game 2 of this series. It was the second time in four starts versus Los Angeles that he went under all three numbers. Even in his two misses against the Dodgers, he was not too far off.
On April 14, he went under both his strikeouts and hits allowed but gave up three earned runs. On May 12, he went under his hits and earned runs allowed props but fanned seven Dodgers in a shutout victory. In those games, he threw 92 and 101 pitches. Darvish has averaged about 76 pitches per start since returning last month, with a high of 87 pitches. Which brings me to the narrative portion of this SGP.
This is a winner-take-all game, and all hands will be on deck. The bullpen has been San Diego's greatest strength for most of the season. Closer Robert Suarez and setup men Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon have had solid campaigns. The team also added complementary pieces like Tanner Scott, Bryan Hoeing, and Jason Adam at the trade deadline. Since July 31, Padres' relievers collectively rank second in the Majors in xFIP, SIERA, and K-BB%. They are among the leaders in several other key metrics as well.
Because of how good their bullpen has been, I do not see Darvish lasting very long in this game. I would be quite surprised if he pitched more than five innings and that is likely only if he is pitching well. Mike Shildt could yank Darvish at the first real sign of trouble if things go poorly. Such a scenario would also likely lead to Unders across the board for Darvish.
Among the most trusted Padres' relievers (Estrada, Adam, Scott, and Suarez), only Estrada pitched in Game 4. This quartet should be fully rested for this game. All four have already had outings longer than one inning during this postseason. So it is not crazy to envision this group pitching five or even six innings on Friday if need be.
As for the final leg, I am betting on Luis Arraez to get at least one hit in this game. Arraez has struggled by his standards this postseason. However, the three-time batting champion still has a hit in 5-of-6 playoff games this year. Arraez singled and struck out against Yamamoto in Game 1 of this series.
Depending on how you feel about Darvish's potential usage in this game, you can also include him not recording a win (-375) in this SGP. You can add it to the four legs above to increase the payout to +840. Or you can replace one of the existing legs with the Darvish No Win leg. If you remove the Arraez Hit leg and just go full Darvish, the payout would be +577 as of this writing.
Parlay Odds: +464