MLB Same Game Parlay Picks: Monday (Mets vs. Braves)
Although the regular season ended yesterday, there’s still some baseball on this afternoon!
The New York Mets will play the Atlanta Braves in a doubleheader with major playoff implications for both teams.
If the Mets and Braves each win one game, they’ll both advance into the NL Wild Card, and the Arizona Diamondbacks will be sent home. However, if the Mets or Braves earn a sweep today, the team swept will go home, and Arizona will make the playoffs.
That said, the Mets and Braves haven’t listed a starter for Game 2 of the doubleheader since they’ll want to know the result of Game 1 before making that decision. Therefore, we’ll add a same-game parlay for the first matchup at 1:00 pm ET below.
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Monday’s Best MLB Same Game Parlay Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuelFanDuel Sportsbook)
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
- Leg 1: Tylor Megill Under 4.5 Ks (+132)
- Leg 2: Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
- Leg 3: Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Tylor Megill will get the start for the Mets. He’s a right-handed pitcher who has limited his last 80 batters to a .043 ISO and wOBA of .211. He’s been sharp, except for strikeouts against righties. Megill has only tallied 16.1% of strikeouts against righties over the last 30 days.
He’ll take on a Braves lineup that should have six righties in the lineup. Those six righties have struck out 23.5% of the time, but there are really only two batters in the Atlanta lineup that have struck out more than 24.3% of the time in the last 30 days. Megill is better at striking out lefties, yet the three lefties in the Braves order have combined to strike out just 13.3% of the time against righties in the last month.
In addition, Megill will be on a tightrope. If he struggles ever so slightly, the Mets will go straight to the bullpen and try to preserve the game.
On the flip side, it’ll be Spencer Schwellenbach for the Braves. The rookie right-hander doesn’t have nearly as good analytics as Megill. Schwellenbach has allowed a .224 ISO and wOBA of .355 to his last 53 lefties and has only struck out 16.7% of all batters in the previous 30 days.
Schwellenbach has watched his last 53 lefties hit 57.1% of hard contact and 35.7% of line drives. He’s also induced only 26.2% of ground balls.
Analytically, the Mets should pounce on Schwellenbach with their lefties. Francisco Lindor has hit a .196 ISO and wOBA of .382 against righties over the last 30 days. Brandon Nimmo also contributed a .237 ISO and wOBA of .328 against righties at the same time.
Take those two lefties to add at least two total bases in Game 1 of the doubleheader.
Parlay Odds: +859