I’m eyeing a couple of MLB matchups and ready to exploit them. Therefore, I’ve added two same-game parlays (SGPs) for tonight’s MLB action. Follow along with the analysis below.
Boost your MLB betting strategy with our MLB Prop Bet Analyzer. Get the top-rated and trending MLB player props today.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Tuesday’s Best MLB Same Game Parlays
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Yankees
- Leg 1: Corbin Burnes Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+106)
- Leg 2: Will Warren Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160)
- Leg 3: Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Corbin Burnes is set to make his Arizona debut tonight. The right-handed ace struck out 22.6% of batters last season and allowed only 6% of walks. He also held teams to a .119 ISO and wOBA of .275 with 48.4% of ground balls and only 22.7% of fly balls allowed.
Burnes will battle a Yankees lineup that struck out 23.6% of the time against righties dating back to last season. Ultimately, Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt, Jazz Chisholm, Anthony Volpe, Jasson Dominguez and Ben Rice all struck out at least 24.8% of the time against righties. What bat you use doesn’t matter if you can’t hit the pitch.
On the other hand, Will Warren will get the call for the Yankees. Warren faced 112 batters last season and struck out 25.9% of them. However, he still allowed a .268 ISO and wOBA of .433 to those 112 batters while giving up 55.1% of hard contact and more line drives than fly balls. He’s in line to face a Diamondbacks lineup that has struck out 18.3% of the time dating back to last season against righties. Only Eugenio Suarez has struck out more than 20.6% of the time against righties in that lineup.
Suarez might be a strikeout threat, but he’s also a power threat. Suarez has added a .230 ISO and wOBA of .343 against his last 453 righties dating back to last season. Warren, on the other hand, allowed a .296 ISO and wOBA of .428 to 58 righties. Suarez might get punched out once or twice, but when he connects, watch out.
Parlay Odds: +646
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners
- Leg 1: Logan Gilbert Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-118)
- Leg 2: Casey Mize Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-136)
- Leg 3: Under 6.5 Runs (+110)
The Mariners will run it back with Logan Gilbert tonight. The right-handed Mariners ace struck out 34.8% of batters in his first start of the season. He also walked none and limited 23 batters to a .130 wOBA with nearly 35% of whiffs. He’ll take on a Tigers lineup that has collectively hit a .166 ISO and wOBA of .299 since last season. This team has also struck out 26.6% of the time against righties in that same time frame. Gilbert has seven targets in the Tigers’ lineup where he can consistently land strikeouts. Asking for eight punchouts isn’t that much for Gilbert. He’s got a good matchup.
On the other hand, Casey Mize will give it a go for the Tigers. He’s not known for high strikeouts. However, he’s facing a Mariners lineup that struck out 25.8% of the time against righties dating back to last season. Like Gilbert, Mize has seven batters in the lineup who have struck out at a high rate against righties since last season.
Mize struck out only 17.2% of batters last season. That’s not going to get the job done. However, he limited 454 batters to a .149 ISO and delivered nearly 50% of ground balls. If he can get through five or six innings, five strikeouts against the Mariners’ lineup shouldn’t be that hard.
If both pitchers do their job, the under 6.5 runs should also hit. After all, in our assessment, both lineups will struggle to make contact with the ball. Let’s finish off this parlay with the under.
Parlay Odds: +402
