MLB Sleeper Picks Player Predictions: Sunday (10/15)
The first game of the ALCS is tonight between the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers!
The game will begin at 8:15 p.m. ET on FOX. The matchup will include Jordan Montgomery for the Rangers against Justin Verlander for the Astros.
I have a few Sleeper prop picks for tonight’s action.
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Sunday's Best MLB Sleeper Picks Player Predictions
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (2.12X)
Yordan Alvarez is one of the lone lefties with significant success against left-handed pitchers. He’s hit a .300 ISO and wOBA of .424 over the last month while striking out just 8.7% of the time against lefties.
He’s smacked 27.8% of line drives and fly balls while hitting 77.8% of hard contact and a 22.2% barrel percentage.
He’ll face Jordan Montgomery tonight, who has allowed a .200 ISO and wOBA of .437 to his last 15 lefties. That’s not a significant sample size. But against Alvarez, it’s enough to get excited about the lefty-on-lefty matchup. Take a chance with Alvarez.
Justin Verlander Under 5.5 Ks (1.63X)
Justin Verlander has only struck out 21.6% of batters this season. His rate is up to 24.5% over the last 30 days for the Astros. However, he’s only struck out 22% of lefties. He’ll likely face a Rangers lineup with more lefties than righties.
Texas has only four players striking out more than 20.8% of the time against righties. Three of those four batters are right-handed hitters, where Verlander has struggled to earn a high rate of strikeouts this season.
Verlander has earned a low whiff percentage and only 8% swinging strikes against righties in the last month. Therefore, I’ve got Verlander going Under 5.5 Ks. He has a history of struggling in the postseason. He’ll pitch well, but it won’t be via the strikeout.
Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Total Bases (2.12X)
I’m going back to that Montgomery stat. He’s struggled against lefties recently, allowing a .200 ISO and wOBA of .437 to his last 15 lefties. Montgomery has only struck out 20% of lefties in the previous month while striking out just 21.6% of lefties this season. He’s given up a 33.3% fly ball percentage and has allowed 25% of line drives to lefties in the last 30 days.
Meanwhile, Kyle Tucker has masked a .200 ISO, with 42.9% of line drives and fly balls against lefties over the last 30 days. He hasn’t hit hard contact, but just a line drive down the line is all we’d need against the lefty Montgomery.
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