Last night’s Sleeper entry was off to a great start. Yordan Alvarez and Bryce Harper both walked, leaving Evan Longoria as the final piece to get the three-legger home. Of course, the .223 hitter found one of the Diamondbacks’ four hits on the night in his second and final plate appearance of the game, trashing our Under 0.5 hits prop. So close, yet so far.
Let’s find a winning entry today for Game 2 of the NLCS. Here are the best Sleeper plays to consider for today, Tuesday, Oct. 17.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Sleeper Picks Player Predictions
PrizePicks this season: 81-65-9 Sleeper playoffs: 10-8
Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Walks
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. I’m going back to the well on Bryce Harper to record a walk, especially after his performance at the plate last night. Teams are better off pitching around him right now with the way he is seeing the ball, and for the most part, they have done just that. Through seven postseason games, he has eight walks, two of the intentional variety, and has gone over this mark in five of the seven contests. Harper ranked in the 96th percentile in BB% on the season for a reason.
When they have given him something to hit, it has typically gone a long way. He is 9-22 with four homers this postseason. Torey Louvello and the Diamondbacks know this firsthand now. Just look at what happened last night. After hitting that first-pitch fastball out for a HR in the first inning, Harper didn’t see a pitch in the zone for nine straight pitches. He turned on a heater inside in his second at-bat, walked on five pitches in his third and got the count to 3-0 in his final AB before popping out on a full count. It wouldn’t be shocking to see them intentionally walk him if first base was open at a point in the game. Back Harper to find a walk again.
Trea Turner Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
After struggling for the first half of the year in his debut season with the Phillies, Trea Turner has come alive when it matters most. He has a 140 wRC+ in the second half of the season, which pales in comparison to his 84 wRC+ in the first half. Turner has gotten even hotter in October and is 14-28 with five doubles, two home runs, three RBIs and six runs scored. He has exceeded this mark in all seven games this playoffs and has excellent numbers against Merrill Kelly.
Turner is 9-21 with three doubles and three walks in his career against Arizona’s starter. If you want a better payout, turn to his total base prop instead, which he has cleared in six of seven games this postseason. I’m going the slightly safer route.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Under 0.5 Walks
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is a bonafide hacker and has been for the entirety of his career. He swings at just about everything thrown his way, even pitches well outside of the zone, and his 5.6% BB% was in the bottom-13th percentile this season. Gurriel Jr. hasn’t walked once in his 25 plate appearances (six games) this postseason and is under this mark in 122/151 (81%) of games this season.
Tonight, he faces Aaron Nola, who has ranked among the league’s best at finding the zone. In 2021, he was in the top 92nd percentile in BB%. He was in the 99th percentile in 2022 and is in the 87th percentile this season. Gurriel Jr. hasn’t walked once in his six career plate appearances against him.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:
- NFL Week 7 Line Movement Analysis: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
- NFL Week 7 Early Odds, Best Bets & Trends (2023)
- MLB Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- 2023 ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets
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