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MLB Sleeper Picks Player Predictions: Saturday (10/7)

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The MLB will begin its Division Series matchups today! Because a few teams in the playoffs have already played Wild Card games, it’s not all aces on the mound to start today’s slate.

I’ve got three Sleeper picks to think about for today’s postseason games in the MLB.

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Saturday's Best MLB Sleeper Picks Player Predictions

Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (1.9X)

The Diamondbacks will face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS. Arizona already started Brandon Pfaadt and Zac Gallen in their first two games over the postseason.

Therefore, Merrill Kelly is up next for the D-Backs. Kelly has been dominant against righties, but he’s allowed a .239 ISO and wOBA of .398 to his last 57 lefties.

Those 57 lefties have only struck out 17.5% of the time over the last 30 days.

It hasn’t been a common theme for Kelly. But it’s a glaring hole in his game recently.

He’ll face Freddie Freeman, hitting a .288 ISO and wOBA of .423 against his last 72 righties. Freeman has also struck out just 15.3% of the time against righties.

Let’s grab Freeman to earn at least two total bases.

Michael Harris Over 0.5 Total Bases (1.42X)

Michael Harris is the lone lefty in the Atlanta lineup, hitting lefties consistently. Matt Olson hasn’t. But Harris has.

Harris has hit a .233 ISO and wOBA of .372 against his last 31 lefties. Now he’ll take on Ranger Suarez, a lefty who has allowed a .357 ISO and wOBA of .406 to his previous 15 lefties.

It’s a small sample size. But he’s had his struggles against lefties over the last month. Suarez has struck out just 6.7% of lefties in the previous 30 days and continues to allow a high line drive rate to lefties.

Let’s take a chance on the lefty-lefty matchup with Harris.

Spencer Strider Under 8.5 Ks (1.63X)

The Braves will send out their ace pitcher, Spencer Strider, for Game 1 of the NLDS. Strider has struck out over 30% of batters in the last month but has struck out 36.8% of batters this season.

His rate has dropped by nearly 6% over the last 30 days due to his lack of strikeouts against lefties. Strider has only struck out 24.6% of lefties in the previous 30 days. However, he’s struck out 35.1% of lefties this season.

Strider will face a Phillies lineup filled with quality lefties. The Phillies should have a balanced lineup, including lefties like Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott, and Brandon Marsh. Those lefties have all struck out more than 20% of the time, but their chances of striking out are lower with Strider’s lower rate against lefties.

Meanwhile, the Phillies’ righties have struck out just 20.8% of the time against other righties. It’s unlikely that Strider earns a high strikeout rate against those righties.

Nine strikeouts is asking for a lot, especially in the postseason. I’ll take his Under.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

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