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MLB To Hit a Home Run Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (10/9)

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Game 2 of the NLDS takes place this evening between two divisional rivals. There’s plenty of history between both of these teams with the teams squaring off 13 times in the regular season. So, we’ve got plenty of data to source through for these home run picks. Let’s dive into a couple of looks for tonight’s matchups.

Monday’s Best Player To Hit A Home Run Prop Bets

Nick Castellanos to Hit a HR (+600 @ DraftKings)

The Phillies starting right-fielder lives to mash left-handed pitching. Castellanos owns a career 133 wRC+ (16.6% HR/FB) against Southpaws compared to a 104 wRC+ (13.1% HR/FB) facing righties. Taking on Max Fried will be a welcomed sight for him tonight considering the numbers he has posted against him. He is 8-13 with a double and dinger facing the Braves lefty. Castellanos actually hit that home run against him on the 12th of September. Fried isn’t known to give up many dingers, but we’re getting 6/1 odds here, and Castellanos destroys lefties, remember? He’s worth a little sprinkle tonight.

Max Muncy to Hit a HR (+340 @ FanDuel)

Second on the Dodgers with 36 home runs this season, Max Muncy is a bonafide bopper who loves hitting righties. He owns a 136 wRC+ (.281 ISO) facing right-handers compared to a 76 wRC+ (.223 ISO) vs. lefties. He and the Dodgers take on a tough righty tonight in Zac Gallen, but the Diamondbacks ace has significant home/road splits this season.

At Chase Field he owns a 2.47 ERA (0.62 HR/9) and .262 wOBA in 102 innings, but on the road that is spiked to a 4.42 ERA (1.25 HR/9) and .313 wOBA across 108 innings. 14 of the 22 home runs he has allowed this year have come to lefties, and Max Muncy was one of them. He hit a two-run shot against him on August 28th.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:

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