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MLB To Hit A Home Run Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (10/4)

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October baseball is back. There is nothing better than blasting a memorable HR in the Postseason. 

That said, here are my favorite HR props for today’s games. 

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Wednesday’s Best To Hit A Home Run Bets

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Isaac Paredes +500 / Randy Arozarena +475

Nathan Eovaldi is getting the start for the Rangers as they look to clinch their Wild Card series against the Tampa Bay Rays. Eovaldi finished the regular season with a 12-5 record and a 3.63 ERA, which is impressive considering that is just the second time he has finished with 12 or more wins in his career. Additionally, his 3.63 ERA was the third lowest of his career.

That being said, I am fading him today because Eovaldi went on the IL in late July and hasn’t looked the same since. Before his IL stint, his era was 2.69 with a 3.79 xFIP. In six starts since coming off the IL, he went 1-2 with a 9.30 ERA while giving up seven home runs. He only allowed eight home runs in the previous four months. 

Even if he has some of his better stuff, I don’t expect him to go deep into this game, as the Rangers have not allowed him to face more than 22 batters since returning from injury. That could mean more opportunities against this Rangers’ bullpen, which has allowed the second most home runs per 9 this season.

Trea Turner +360 / Kyle Schwarber +380 / Alec Bohm +500

The Philadelphia Phillies were tied for the 2nd most HRs (76) against left-handed pitching in 2023. The Atlanta Braves also had 76, while the Los Angeles Dodgers led the league with 79.

I like to fade pitchers who don’t have any playoff experience. In this case, Braxton Garrett is making his postseason debut in a challenging Philly environment. The City of Brotherly Love will be crazy from the first pitch as they look to complete the two-game sweep of their division rival. 

In two starts against the Phillies this season, Garrett pitched 10 innings, giving up six runs on 12 hits, including one home run to Trea Turner. The Trio of Turner, Schwarber, and Bohm are a combined 9-for-22 (.409) with three HRs against Braxton Garrett. These three also lead the team in HRs against a left-handed pitcher. (Schwarber 15, Bohm, 12, Turner 9).

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


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