MLB To Hit a Home Run Player Prop Bet Picks: Tuesday (Diamondbacks vs. Phillies)
It’s the two greatest words in sports: Game Seven! The Diamondbacks will attempt to win their second straight game against the Phillies in The City of Brotherly Love tonight, which would punch their ticket to the World Series. As for the Phillies, a loss would mean that they dropped four of the final five games of the series. They’ll look to avoid the collapse tonight in this NLCS showdown that’s scheduled for 8:07 p.m. ET From Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA.
From a sports betting perspective, I’m locking in a couple of long shots to hit home runs tonight. Let’s go out with a bang! Here’s who I’m riding with to step up on the big stage and launch one out of the park.
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Today’s Best To Hit A Home Run Prop Bets
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Ketel Marte (+450) & Christian Walker (+425)
Tonight’s pitching matchup features a rematch of game three, a contest where Brandon Pfaadt and Ranger Suarez were both lights out. The duo combined for 11.0 innings of scoreless baseball in the 2-1 Arizona victory. So, what’s our edge for this one considering the dominance from Pfaadt and Suarez? Well, I’m looking at the head-to-head numbers and who has been hot.
Over at DraftKings Sportsbook Ketel Marte sits with the second-shortest odds to win NLCS MVP (+340), trailing only Kyle Schwarber. Marte’s on fire this postseason, slashing .375/.400/.625 with seven extra-base hits over 48 at-bats. Two of those at-bats have gone for home runs. As for his head-to-head numbers, the second baseman is 8-18 (.444) against Suarez with two doubles and no strikeouts. He’s seeing the ball well and hasn’t struck out against the southpaw, which makes this a favorable matchup.
I’ll also ride with Christian Walker, who terrorized left-handers this season. The slugger posted a .922 OPS while recording 13 of his 33 long balls against LHP. He also has great numbers against Suarez, going 5-16 (.313) with two doubles and a triple. Walker hasn’t been great this postseason (.194 average), but I think that’s why we see a payout of +425 with him to go yard. This guy has been the backbone of the organization since Paul Goldschmidt’s departure, and I think it’s worth a flier to say that he steps up tonight under the bright lights.
Kyle Schwarber (+240)
On the flip side, I’m also going to ride with Kyle Schwarber. As I mentioned above, should the Phillies win, it’s likely that Schwarbs will secure the NLCS MVP (-125). The left-handed slugger has launched five home runs over 44 at-bats this postseason. That includes four during this series.
He is 0-2 (.000) against Pfaadt with a pair of strikeouts, which is a bit worrisome. However, I don’t think you can go wrong backing a man who put 47 balls into the bleachers during the regular season. Finally, it’s worth noting that while Pfaadt has been electric this postseason, he did struggle to keep the ball in the yard in the regular season. The right-hander’s HR/9 rate was 2.06. Let’s take a shot on Schwarber to hit a nuke tonight at home.
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