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MLB To Hit a Home Run Player Prop Picks & Predictions: Friday (5/19)

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We're heading into a jam-packed weekend of sports featuring postseason conference finals in the NBA and NHL, the Preakness Stakes, the PGA Championship, and plenty of action on the diamond. I'm keeping my focus on the MLB, where we've been having a profitable season thanks to the longshot payouts that come with these home runs props.

Below I've listed my top three players I believe have a great chance to go yard tonight. 

MLB YTD: 30-47 (+8.62 Units)

View the best player prop bets for tonight's slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Best To Hit A Home Run Player Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Ryan Mountcastle (+450)

The Orioles hit the road after splitting a four-game set with the Angels in their mid-week series. They'll take on the Blue Jays for three games starting tonight. First pitch for the opener is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. EDT from the Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ont.

The pitching matchup in this AL East showdown sees Kyle Gibson taking the ball for Baltimore while Toronto opts for Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi is a perfect 5-0 this season and enters this game with a 3.89 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over eight starts. However, he hasn't been sharp in two of his last three starts, where he surrendered 10 earned runs to the Red Sox and Braves. The two teams launched five combined home runs against Kikuchi, and he's now given up 11 on the year. 

He'll be running into another tough offense tonight in the Orioles, who are 13th in team batting average (.253) and ninth in OPS (.754). The O's have seen Kikuchi well as they're slashing .303/.370/.697 against him with six long balls over 66 at-bats. Specifically, Ryan Mountcastle is 4-9 (.444) with three big flies against the left-hander. The first baseman already has nine homers this year, and I'm locking him in to hit his 10th tonight. 

Daulton Varsho (+550)

Keeping it in the same game, I'm flipping to the other side, where I'm taking Daulton Varsho to go yard tonight at +550. The outfielder is hitting just .217 this season but has six home runs to his name thus far. Furthermore, he's had no issues with Baltimore's starter, Kyle Gibson. He's 3-6 (.500) against him with a homer.

Gibson has been a little flat this year, as he's 4-3 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Over his last three starts specifically, he's posted a 6.11 ERA and given up 23 hits over 17.2 innings of work. This is a great opportunity for the Blue Jays’ offense to get back on track against a floundering Gibson. 

 

Xander Bogaerts (+650)

San Diego is in the midst of a rough patch, considering they're just 1-7 over their last eight games. It won't get much easier this weekend as they face off against a scrappy Boston team out west. First pitch for the opener is slated for 9:40 p.m. ET from Petco Park in San Diego. 

Blake Snell gets the nod for the Friars while the visitors counter with James Paxton in this battle of lefties. Paxton debuted against the Cardinals on May 12 and gave up two earned runs over 5.0 innings. He yielded four hits, and one of them was a home run. The 34-year-old took a no-decision in the 8-6 loss. 

Xander Bogaerts is very familiar with Paxton from their time spent in the AL East, back when the former was with the Sox, and Paxton was with the Yankees. Bogaerts is 7-23 (.304) against him, with three home runs and two doubles. The sticks have cooled off for the Padres as they're surprisingly the worst team in the league in batting average this year (.226). But, Bogaerts isn't to blame, as he's hitting .275 with six bombs and 16 RBI. I love the +650 payout that comes with him going deep against his old ball club.

Check out our other best bets for Friday:


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