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MLB To Hit a Home Run Player Prop Picks & Predictions: Friday (6/23)

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The weekend’s here, which means it’s time to kick back and enjoy some baseball! In my opinion, there’s no better way to get the weekend started than with a few longshot home run player props. Here are the top four players who I’m locking in to go yard tonight. 

MLB YTD: 47-89 (-2.33 units)

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Today’s Best To Hit A Home Run Prop Bets

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Ronald Acuna Jr. (+220) & Austin Riley (+300)

The red-hot Braves have won eight straight games, and they’re heading to Cincinnati to take on the first-place Reds. The Reds are also playing well, considering they’ve rattled off 11 straight wins. They’ll turn to Luke Weaver to keep things rolling tonight while Atlanta counters with AJ Smith-Shawver. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET from the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH.

Cincinnati’s 3-0 in Weaver’s starts this month; however, it has been the offense that’s propelled them to success. Over those three starts (13.1 IP), the right-hander has posted a 10.13 ERA and 2.18 WHIP. The ugly starts have seen his ERA and WHIP spike to 6.47 and 1.54, respectively. Now, the key note here is that Weaver comes into today’s action with the highest HR/9 rate amongst the 30 starters today (2.05). He’s given up a total of 13 long balls over 57.0 innings this season. 

His task tonight is taking on the Braves, who are first overall in the Majors with 129 home runs. I’m locking in both Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley to leave the yard tonight. Acuna Jr. is 4-11 (.364) against Weaver in his career, with a home run and two doubles. Riley is 2-5 (.400) with two tanks. This is an ugly matchup for Weaver, and I think we’re going to see some fireworks at the hitter-friendly GABP. 

Randy Arozarena (+340) & Manuel Margot (+650)

Also starting at 6:40 p.m. ET is game two of the series between the Royals and the Rays. Kansas City (+275) shocked the world last night, beating Tampa 6-5 in the series opener. Tonight’s American League showdown features a pitching matchup between Zack Greinke and Zach Eflin.

Greinke hasn’t been overwhelmingly sharp with the Royals this season, as he comes into this one at 1-7 with a 4.81 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 15 starts. We’ve really seen him struggle on the road this year, where his ERA increases to 6.15. The road woes won’t bode well for Greinke, as his challenge is taking on a Tampa team that’s trailing only Atlanta in home runs this year (120).

Furthermore, the Rays have had Greinke’s number in the past, as the current roster is slashing .385/.407/.654 over 52 at-bats. That includes Randy Arozarena, who’s 2-5 (.400) with a home run. Manuel Margot has also seen him well, going 8-21 (.381) with two long balls. Similar to Weaver above, this is a tough spot for Greinke. You know the Rays will want to bounce back after last night’s embarrassing defeat, so look for their offense to lead the way here. Let’s ride with Arozarena and Margot to collect their 15th and fourth bombs of the year, respectively.

Check out our other best bets for Friday:


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