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MLB To Hit a Home Run Player Prop Picks & Predictions: Friday (6/30)

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The weekend is here, and we have a ton of exciting baseball on the horizon. A few of the more intriguing series include the Marlins taking on the Braves, the Astros squaring off against the Rangers, and the Angels hosting the Diamondbacks. 

From a sports betting standpoint, I’m starting the weekend with a specific player prop: who’s going to hit a home run? Here are my top three picks for who I think is going yard tonight. 

MLB YTD: 53-96 (+2.96 units)

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Today’s Best To Hit A Home Run Prop Bets

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Juan Soto (+310)

The Padres’ underwhelming season continues, but they’ll try to turn things around when they face the Reds for three games this weekend. The pitching matchup for the series opener features a battle between Seth Lugo and Graham Ashcraft. This one gets underway at 5:10 p.m. ET from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH.

I’m rolling with Juan Soto to hit a bomb tonight. Of course, we know what he can do at the dish. He’s raised his average to .268 after a slow start and now has 14 total long balls on the season. 

But the main reason I think it’s worth a shot with Soto is that he’s facing Ashcraft. This right-hander is having an ugly season, coming into tonight’s game at 3-6 with a 7.17 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. Over three starts this month, Ashcraft owns a 16.03 ERA and 2.62 WHIP, and he’s surrendered five homers over just 10.2 innings pitched. On top of that, Soto is 2-6 (.333) against him with a pair of doubles. Look for the ball to be flying out of the hitter-friendly GABP tonight.

George Springer (+550)

Similar to the Padres, the Red Sox got swept in their recent series, and they’ve also lost their last five games. James Paxton takes the ball as he attempts to guide Boston back into the win column. The Blue Jays counter with Jose Berrios in this divisional tilt scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET from the Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON.

Paxton is putting together a solid season and comes into this game at 3-1 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over eight starts. However, on the road, his ERA increases to 4.10, and he has given up five home runs over 26.1 innings of work. That translates to a road HR/9 rate of 1.71. 

Paxton’s task tonight is taking on a Toronto offense that’s one of the best in the league, ranking fifth in team batting average (.263) and seventh in OPS (.749). What sticks out to me most in this matchup are the head-to-head numbers – specifically with George Springer. The outfielder is 9-37 (.243) against Paxton with three home runs and a double. Paxton’s struggled on the road, and the Red Sox are in a slump, so I think it could be a long night at the office for them. I’m taking a flier on Springer to go deep tonight. 

Christian Walker (+400)

The Angels are coming off of a series split with the White Sox in their midweek series. They’ll now host the Diamondbacks for three games over the weekend. The pitching matchup for the opener pits Tommy Henry against Griffin Canning. First pitch is slated for 9:38 p.m. ET from Angel Stadium in Anaheim, CA.

Canning has been a serviceable option for the Angels this season and enters at 6-2 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He has been somewhat susceptible to the long ball, as he owns an HR/9 rate of 1.52. To put that into context, it’s the ninth-highest amongst starting pitchers today.

Typically I’m looking to fade specific pitchers when I’m choosing my home run props. And while Cristian Walker is 2-3 (.667) against Canning, the main reason I’m riding with him tonight is simply because he’s red hot. The slugger is hitting .370 with a 1.109 OPS over the last 15 days. That includes three homers during the span. This Snakes offense is rolling right now, and I think we could be in for a higher-scoring affair tonight in Anaheim. Let’s lock in Walker to blast his 17th long ball of the season in tonight’s series opener.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


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