MLB To Hit a Home Run Player Prop Picks & Predictions: Friday (7/14)
It was a successful All-Star Break, and we’re officially onto the second half of the MLB season. I’m starting the weekend off right by taking it to the prop sheet. Here are my top four picks for players to hit a home run tonight.
MLB YTD: 61-109 (+0.08 units)
Today’s Best To Hit A Home Run Prop Bets
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Randy Arozarena (+475)
The Rays open up the second half of the season with a six-game road trip featuring stops in Kansas City and Arlington. Tonight’s pitching matchup against the Royals pits Tyler Glasnow against Alec Marsh. This one gets underway at 8:10 p.m. ET from Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, MO.
Marsh will be making just his third career start tonight, and his career isn’t off to a fantastic start. The right-hander is 0-2 and brings in a 7.00 ERA and 1.78 WHIP. He has given up three long balls over 9.0 total innings, which translates to a 3.00 HR/9 rate. That’s the highest among starting pitchers today.
That’s not a preferable stat to have, especially when you factor in that the Rays are third overall in home runs (137) this year. I’m rolling with Randy Arozarena to go deep tonight. He’s fresh off of a runner-up performance at the Home Run Derby earlier this week. Also, all 16 of his home runs have come off of right-handers this year. Arozarena is hitting a respectable .279 with 26 extra-base hits against RHP.
Matt Olson (+250)
The Braves start out at home after the break, where they’ll play the White Sox and Diamondbacks for three games each. Tonight’s matchup with the Sox features a pitching matchup between Michael Kopech and Charlie Morton. First pitch is slated for 7:20 p.m. ET from Truist Park in Atlanta, GA.
Kopech will make his first start since returning from the IL. That’s not an ideal spot for the right-hander, as he’ll have to deal with a Braves team that’s blasted 169 moonshots this year (1st). Kopech is already off to a pedestrian start, where he’s 3-7 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. His 1.78 HR/9 rate is the sixth-highest amongst starters today.
I’m locked in on Matt Olson to hit a bomb tonight. He’s second in the league right now with 29 tanks, and he looks up at only Shohei Ohtani (32). As for the head-to-head stats, Olson is 1-1 (1.000) against Kopech with a home run. The slugger is on a tear this year, and I don’t expect him to slow down anytime soon.
Harrison Bader (+370) & Giancarlo Stanton (+215)
The Yankees head out to the Mile High City, where they’ll take on the Rockies for a trio of games. Tonight’s opener features a pitching showdown between Carlos Rodon and Austin Gomber. This one is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET from Coors Field in Denver, CO.
Gomber isn’t having a great start to the season, as he’s 7-7 with a 6.40 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. The left-hander has been prone to giving up the long ball as he owns a 2.00 HR/9 rate, the third-highest amongst starters today.
Considering the ball flies out of Coors Field, I’m locking in two players to go deep tonight. Let’s ride with Harrison Bader and Giancarlo Stanton to leave the yard. Stanton has yet to face Gomber in his career, but Bader is 1-2 (.500) with a big fly. Bader is one of those guys who brings this New York lineup to another level when he’s healthy. I think he’ll take advantage of the hitter-friendly park and blast one tonight. As for Stanton, it’s worth noting that his average climbs to .280 against LHP, and three of his nine homers are against southpaws. Let’s take a shot with these two players to go yard.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:
- MLB Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions
- MLB Player To Hit A Home Run Odds, Picks & Predictions
- 2023 NBA Summer League Odds, Picks & Predictions
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