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MLB To Hit a Home Run Player Prop Picks & Predictions: Friday (7/21)

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The weekend is here, and we have a ton of great baseball on the horizon. The action starts this afternoon when the surging Cardinals take on the Cubs at Wrigley Field. As for the evening slate, some of the intriguing matchups include the Diamondbacks taking on the Reds, the Dodgers squaring off against the Rangers and the Braves going head-to-head with the Brewers. 

From a betting standpoint, I'm taking it to the prop sheet tonight. Below, I've narrowed in on my top three To Hit a Home Run prop bets. Here's who I think goes yard tonight: 

Today's Best To Hit A Home Run Prop Bets

MLB YTD: 66-116 (+0.42 units) | Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

J.D. Martinez (+330) 

We have a potential World Series matchup this weekend as the Dodgers gear up to take on the Rangers in Arlington, Texas. Tonight's pitching showdown features a battle between Tony Gonsolin and Andrew Heaney. First pitch is slated for 8:05 p.m. ET from Globe Life Field.

Heaney has been a serviceable option for the Rangers this year, and he enters at 6-6 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. The left-hander has been prone to giving up the long ball, as his HR/9 rate is 1.68 coming into tonight. 

I'm riding with J.D. Martinez to hit a bomb tonight at +330. He has blasted 23 home runs this year, which is tied for the ninth-most in MLB. Furthermore, he's 3-9 (.333) against Heaney in his career with a pair of big flies. Over the last 15 days, Martinez has launched three homers and is slashing .303/.378/.606. This Los Angeles team is picking up steam at the right time, and they may cause some issues for Heaney tonight. Let's take a flier on Martinez to go yard.

Chas McCormick (+450) 

The Astros secured a 3-1 win against the Athletics last night, and they've now won four of their six games coming out of the break. They'll look to keep things rolling tonight with Framber Valdez while the A's counter with JP Sears. This one gets underway at 9:40 p.m. ET from the Coliseum in Oakland, Calif. 

Sears has been arguably the best starter for the Athletics this season, yet he's just 1-6 overall. The left-hander comes into tonight's game with a 3.99 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over 106.0 innings of work. One statistic I always look at with home run props is the pitcher's HR/9 rate, and Sears' mark this year is 1.78. 

His task is to try and limit a Houston side that's hit 117 homers this year, the 11th-most in the league. Chas McCormick has found a power surge recently, hitting four home runs in his last five games. The outfielder has raised his average to .286, and he now has 12 big flies on the year. As for the head-to-head numbers, McCormick is 2-2 (1.000) against Sears with a round-tripper and a double. That equates to an OPS of 4.000. Let's ride with McCormick to go deep tonight at the Coliseum.

Teoscar Hernandez (+300)

Keeping it on the west coast, we have a pretty solid nightcap on the schedule as the Blue Jays square off against the Mariners. Tonight's pitching matchup pits Yusei Kikuchi against Bryce Miller. First pitch is slated for 10:10 p.m. ET from T-Mobile Park in Seattle. 

Kikuchi returns to Seattle, where he takes on his former team. The left-hander enters this contest at 7-3 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. However, he has an inflated HR/9 rate, which is currently 2.02. 

Seattle has put up respectable numbers against the southpaw in his career, slashing .250/.300/.500 over 28 at-bats. Teoscar Hernandez stands out specifically as he's 4-9 (.444) with a long ball and a pair of doubles. The outfielder leads the Mariners with 16 home runs, and six of those tanks have come against lefties. Let's go with Hernandez to hit a bomb tonight.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


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