MLB To Hit a Home Run Player Prop Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (10/10)

by Trenton Pruitt |
Oct 10, 2023

There's nothing better than postseason baseball, and we're right in the middle of the October action. We have two MLB matchups for Tuesday night, both coming in the American League.

I'm taking it to the prop sheet tonight, where I've narrowed in on a trio of players that I'm backing to hit home runs. All three bets come in game three of the ALDS between the Orioles and Rangers. Let's dive in!

Today's Best To Hit A Home Run Prop Bets

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Mitch Garver (+330) & Marcus Semien (+400)

The Rangers will finally play a home game this postseason after starting 4-0 on the road. Fifth-seeded Texas knocked off Tampa Bay (4th seed) in two games and they earned two consecutive victories over an inexperienced Baltimore side at Camden over the weekend. After the built-in off-day, the Rangers have a chance to break out the brooms tonight and punch their ticket to the ALCS. Nathan Eovaldi gets the nod for Texas while Baltimore counters with Dean Kremer. First pitch is scheduled for 8:03 p.m. ET from Globe Life Field in Arlington, TX.

As you can imagine in the postseason, it's slim pickings when it comes to making wise home run prop bets. That's why I'm staying away from the first game of the day. Cristian Javier has held the Twins to 0-15 (.000) in the head-to-head category while Sonny Gray has allowed just one home run (Jose Abreu) over 131 head-to-head at-bats against the Astros.

Instead, I think this is a great opportunity to fade the inexperienced Dean Kremer as he gears up to make his postseason debut. The right-hander went 13-5 in the regular season and posted a 4.12 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. However, among all four of today's starting pitchers, Kremer owns the highest HR/9 rate at 1.41.

Texas also has solid head-to-head numbers against him as the current roster is slashing .298/.349/.456 against him over 57 at-bats. Two players have taken Kremer deep, and they're Mitch Garver and Marcus Semien. Garver is 2-4 (.500) against him with a home run and a double while Semien is 4-12 (.333) with a big fly and a two-bagger. Of all the starters getting the nod today, I think Kremer has the lowest floor. Let's fade him on the road with his team on the brink of elimination.

Gunnar Henderson (+425)

I'll lock in a third player and it's Gunnar Henderson to hit a bomb. Maybe this is a fool's errand considering Nathan Eovaldi is a postseason legend. But, with north of a 4/1 payout, I think it's worth a flier on the budding star.

Before mowing down the Rays in the Wild Card game (6.2 IP, 1 ER), the right-hander was in a free fall. Over 20.1 innings of work in September, Eovaldi posted a 9.30 ERA and opponents hit .313 against him. Baltimore's back is against the wall (obviously), and it'll be their offense that needs to show up if they want to come back in this series. The current Orioles' roster is slashing .264/.280/.357 against him over 140 at-bats. Henderson is 2-2 (1.000) against Eovaldi with a double. I'm going to take a shot on the outfielder to go deep at the dome tonight.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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MLB To Hit a Home Run Player Prop Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (10/10)

Today's Best To Hit A Home Run Prop Bets

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