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MLB To Hit a Home Run Player Prop Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (5/9)

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The midweek series are all underway in Major League Baseball, which means all 30 teams will hit the diamond tonight. We have a few exciting pitching matchups and a few that aren't very enticing from an overall viewing perspective. I'll focus on the latter as I look to fade the starters who have struggled this year.

Let's dive into my three favorite bets for who will hit a home run tonight. 

MLB YTD: 27-37 (+11.57 Units)

View the best player prop bets for tonight's slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Best To Hit A Home Run Player Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Andrew Vaughn (+550)

The Royals spanked the White Sox last night in the series opener, winning 12-5. The AL Central foes are back at it at 7:40 p.m. ET from Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Mo. 

Lucas Giolito will take the ball for the visitors while the Royals counter with Jordan Lyles. Lyles has not been a serviceable option for Kansas City this year, as he's 0-5 with a 6.69 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over seven starts. Most recently, the right-hander was tagged for six earned runs on six hits and two walks against the Orioles. He took a no-decision in the 13-10 defeat. It's also worth noting the team is 0-7 in his starts this year.

The White Sox have gotten to Lyles in the past, as the current roster is slashing .314/.362/.508 in 118 at-bats against the journeyman hurler. Only four of those at-bats have ended in home runs, but Andrew Vaughn has one of them. The first baseman is 2-5 (.400) with a long ball and a double against him. Let's take a shot with Vaughn to go deep tonight. 

Nick Pratto (+750) 

Keeping it in the same game, I'll shift to the other side and take Nick Pratto to hit a home run tonight. The 24-year-old launched his first home run of the year in Friday's 12-8 defeat to the Athletics. Furthermore, he'll have a favorable matchup tonight against Giolito, who he's performed well against in his career. Pratto is 2-3 (.667) against the Sox starter, and both hits have been home runs. 

Giolito may be turning things around, as he's posted four quality starts in his last five outings. However, he still boasts a 3.67 ERA and has already given up five big flies this season. The Royals have decent numbers against him in the head-to-head category, slashing .276/.304/.663 over 98 at-bats. Let's sprinkle on Pratto to go yard tonight. 

J.D. Davis (+600)

The Nationals got the job done last night in their series opener against the Giants, beating San Francisco 5-1 on the back of a fantastic start from Jake Irvin. Washington will look to keep things rolling tonight when they turn to Patrick Corbin. San Francisco opts for Logan Webb in this National League tilt set for 10:45 p.m. ET from Oracle Park. 

Corbin has really struggled since coming over to Washington in 2020. The southpaw has a 4.95 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over 113 starts in a Nationals uniform. As for this year's stats, Corbin is 1-4 out of the gate with a 5.17 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over seven starts. However, the 33-year-old is coming off of a great outing against the Cubs, limiting them to two earned runs on three hits over 7.0 innings. It was a no-decision effort in a 4-3 win for Washington. 

I'm not buying the hype after just one good start - especially since he'll be encountering a Giants club that's owned him in the past. The current roster is slashing .303/.350/.633 in 109 at-bats against Corbin with 10 home runs and six doubles. 40% of those round-trippers have come off the bat of J.D. Davis. The third baseman is 11-37 (.297) against him with four home runs and three doubles. Davis already has seven homers this year, and I think there's a great chance he will get his eighth tonight.

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Tuesday:


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