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MLB To Hit a Home Run Player Prop Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (9/26)

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This will be my final regular season Home Run Prop article of the year, so I'm looking to go out with a bang! Unfortunately, there aren't a ton of great matchups from the analytics that I like to check out. However, I've still narrowed in on a trio of prop bets for tonight's MLB slate. Let's dive into the picks and analysis. 

Today's Best To Hit A Home Run Prop Bets

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Christian Walker (+425) & Ketel Marte (+400)

The Diamondbacks dropped two out of three games to the Yankees over the weekend and they'll try their luck against the White Sox next. The pitching matchup for the series opener features a battle between Zach Davies and Jose Urena. First pitch is slated for 7:40 p.m. ET from Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago, IL. 

Urena is putting together a forgettable season as he enters at 0-6 with a 7.27 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. The long ball has played a major role in Urena's ugly campaign as he's giving up an average of 3.12 home runs per nine innings. That's the highest amongst today's starters by a wide margin. 

It only makes sense to fade the struggling right-hander, and I'll ride with a pair of the top sluggers on the Snakes' roster. First, Christian Walker has gone 2-for-8 (.250) against him with a home run. He's one of two players that has taken Urena deep, with the other being Emmanuel Rivera. Unfortunately, there isn't a market for Rivera’s home runs at DraftKings Sportsbook, especially considering the third baseman is 3-for-7 (.429) against him with three tanks. I'll settle for Ketel Marte, who has gone 4-for-7 (.571) against the Chicago starter with four base hits. Walker has mashed a team-leading 31 home runs this year while Marte sits in third with 24. Let's ride with Walker and Marte to go yard in the Windy City. 

Cal Raleigh (+235)

The Mariners dropped last night's series opener to the Astros, which pushed them down the standings in the Wild Card race. They're now trailing Houston by 1.5 games for the final spot. Tonight's pitching matchup sees Cristian Javier take the ball for the 'Stros while the M's counter with George Kirby. First pitch for this divisional matchup is scheduled for 10:05 p.m. ET from T-Mobile Park in Seattle, WA. 

When it all boils down, Javier hasn't really been having the best of seasons. The right-hander enters tonight's game at 9-4 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. His ERA rises to 5.40 on the road and he has allowed 18 of his 25 bombs away from Minute Maid. Altogether, Javier owns a middle-of-the-pack 1.49 HR/9 mark. 

Seattle's roster has struggled against the righty, posting a slash line of just .172/.274/.281 over 64 at-bats. However, the one Mariner to find success against Javier is Cal Raleigh, who is 3-for-6 (.500) against him with a home run. The switch-hitting catcher's 30 round-trippers are the second-most on the Mariners, trailing only Julio Rodriguez's 31. Raleigh always seems to step up in big moments, and there will be none greater than tonight's game. Give me the backstop to hit a moonshot.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:


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