MLB To Hit A Home Run Player Prop Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (4/12)
HR props have been off to a hot start for me this season. Today I am looking at two sets of teammates while targeting some rookie pitchers making their major league debut.
Wednesday’s Best To Hit A Home Run Bets
All odds via DraftKings
Aaron Judge (+185) & Giancarlo Stanton (+340)
Judge and Stanton have the privilege of going against a rookie pitcher making his MLB debut. The Cleveland Guardians are sending out right-handed Peyton Battenfield.
The 25-year-old has allowed three runs over five innings in his Triple-A start in 2023 after posting a 3.63 ERA among 28 starts in 2022.
Aaron Judge led the MLB in ISO (.384) against right-handed pitchers and is on pace to be close to the top again this season.
In 2023 Judge ranks 13th in ISO and 10th in wOBA, with all four of his home runs coming against RHP.
While Stanton doesn’t put up the number Judge does, his power is undeniable. His numbers are much better facing righties as all his home runs (3) and RBI (8) have come against RHP.
Paul Goldschmidt (+330) & Nolan Arenado (+310)
The Cardinals’ bash brothers have a great matchup today at Coors Field.
Rockies starter Jose Urena has an HR/9 of 7.27 this season, the second-worst among starters with at least five innings pitched. Both Arenado and Goldschmidt have had some success against Urena in their Career.
Arenado vs Urena: .235 AVG, 2 HR, 5 RBI
Goldschmidt vs Urena: .400 AVG, 1 HR, 3 RBI
Rafael Devers (+300)
This season, there seems to be a theme where rookie pitchers making their first start are getting knocked around. I will jump on this trend and take Red Sox slugger Rafael Devers to take rookie Taj Bradley deep.
Taj Bradley is the Rays’ top pitching prospect and will start in place of Zach Eflin. He posted a 2.57 ERA over 133.1 innings between Double-And Triple-A in 2022.
Rafael Devers is quietly off to a great start this season, batting .283 with four home runs and nine RBI. He has historically done better against RHP and is batting .321 with three HR and eight RBI this season.
Boston’s star third-baseman ranks 22nd in ISO and 28th in Hard Hit%.
Check out our other best bets for Wednesday:
- MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks, & Predictions
- MLB To Hit A Home Run Odds, Picks & Predictions
- NBA Play-In Game Odds, Picks & Predictions
- NHL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions
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