Top 3 MLB Wild Card Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (10/8)
We finished 2-1 with our Wild Card picks yesterday!
Each Wild Card Series is best-of-three, meaning all games teams that played yesterday will be playing today. The Guardians, Mariners, Phillies, and Padres could earn an NLDS spot with a win in today’s game. Meanwhile, the Rays, Blue Jays, Cardinals, and Mets could force a Game 3 tomorrow with a win of their own.
Here’s what to expect with today’s MLB Wild Card slate.
- MLB Wild Card No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions
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(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Top 3 MLB Wild Card Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (10/8)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians
Tyler Glasnow will get the start for the Rays today. Glasnow’s making just his third start of the season after coming off the injured list in September.
Since returning, the right-handed ace has a 3.18 xFIP and has struck out 38.5% of batters. It’s unlikely that he can go intense in this game, but if he can at least give the Rays five shutout innings, Tampa Bay would be in a perfect spot to at least tie the series.
As I mentioned yesterday, the Guardians have the better lineup offensively. But the Rays have good enough pitching to overcome that with Glasnow and the bullpen.
Meanwhile, Tristan McKenzie will take the mound for the Guardians. The righty has developed this season. He’s holding a 3.51 xFIP over the last 30 days. He’s also thrown 28.3% of strikeouts with just 2.4% of walks in the previous 30 days.
The Rays have hit a .123 ISO and wOBA of .292 against righties over the last 30 days. Only Ji-Man Choi has hit for high power. Tampa Bay has struck out 23.6% of the time with their projected lineup against righties over the last month.
I’m taking the Under in this game.
Bet: Under 6 (-110 at DraftKings)
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays will get their chance at a left-handed pitcher today. Robbie Ray will take the hill for the Mariners. He’s a lefty with a 5.12 xFIP over the last month.
In that same time frame, he’s allowed a .380 wOBA and ISO of .277 to his last 101 righties. The Blue Jays will have a full lineup of right-handed bats, hitting a .187 ISO and wOBA of .328 over the previous 30 days.
On the other hand, Kevin Gausman has an xFIP of 3.04 in that same time frame, with over 30% of strikeouts to batters faced. He’s walked 4.3% of batters and rarely allows fly balls.
The Mariners have been the hotter offense and came out blazing yesterday. They’re hitting a .241 ISO and wOBA of .344, but it will be challenging to hit a pitcher who’s locked in as much as Gausman.
The Blue Jays have a much better matchup at home as they look to tie the series at one. I’ll take them.
Bet: Blue Jays (-165 at DraftKings)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The Phillies found a way to win Game 1. They’ve got Aaron Nola on the mound for Game 2, going up against Miles Mikolas of the Cardinals.
Nola has been sensational recently, holding a 2.80 xFIP over the last 30 days. He’s also struck out 32.1% of batters while walking just 4.6%.
St. Louis is hitting a .162 ISO and wOBA of .309 over the last 30 days against righties, with only Albert Pujols hitting an inflated ISO in the last 30 days.
St. Louis will limit strikeouts against Nola, but they’ve only hit 16% of line drives and 46% of ground balls against righties in the last 30 days.
On the other hand, Miles Mikolas has had a 3.80 xFIP in the last month. But he’s also allowed 29.3% of line drives and has induced about 40% of ground balls in the previous 30 days.
The Phillies have a .182 IOS and wOBA of .319 against righties in that same time frame. They’ve got more power and are hitting 21.4% of line drives against righties through the last 30 days.
I’ve got the Phillies finishing the series tonight.
Bet: Phillies (-120 at DraftKings )
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