MLB Win Totals: Best Odds, Bets & Predictions for the AL (2022)
We continue to inch closer to the first pitch of Major League Baseball in 2022, with Opening Day just a couple of days away. We fans and gamblers have come a long way since the lockout, and it's time to put in a few futures bets for the upcoming season!
Below I've listed a team from each American League division that I think will surpass or fall short of their win total set by the sportsbooks.
Check out all of our consensus MLB Futures odds >>
AL East: Baltimore Orioles Under 62.5 (-110, via Caesars)
The Orioles finished the 2021 season in the cellar of the AL East with an abysmal record of 52-110. That was 48.0 games behind the Rays for first place and tied for the worst record in the league (DBacks).
There are minimal bright spots in the Orioles' organization, but Cedric Mullins and Trey Mancini are two of their better players. Mullins was one of two Orioles to reach 30 home runs last season, while Mancini blasted 21. Mullins slashed .291/.360/.518 in 2021 and stole 30 bases. This upcoming season, he'll slot in as the leadoff hitter while Mancini will likely bat clean-up. Aside from those two players, Baltimore will return Ryan Mountcastle and Anthony Santander and rely on them to produce some offense. Mountcastle blasted 33 bombs and drove in 89 RBIs, while Santander will look to build off a season that saw him hit 18 long balls and slash .241/.286/.433. There isn't much to look forward to for Orioles fans this season, especially with the news that top prospect Adley Rutschman will be sidelined for several weeks. He's a bright spot for the O's, but Baltimore will have to wait until he's healed up.
John Means and Jordan Lyles headline the pitching staff heading into the new year. This will be the fourth season for Means in the bigs, and he's coming off a solid season, posting an ERA of 3.62. His WHIP was 1.03, and he punched out 134 batters. Means may make a decent trade piece for the O's if he can replicate his production against the vaunted AL East. Jordan Lyles is a righty coming over from the Texas Rangers via free agency. He's made his rounds in the league, throwing for six different teams in his career. Lyles was just 10-13 in 2021 with a 5.15 ERA and gave up 1.9 home runs per nine innings of work. Tyler Wells, Bruce Zimmerman, and Keegan Akin will slot in after Means and Lyles.
The AL East is the toughest division in the majors, where we'll likely see four teams fighting for the division title. The Orioles will not be one of those four. They posted just 52 wins in 2021, and I don't think they made the necessary improvements to go much higher than that. They'll fight and claw for a few wins in the division, but Baltimore will find themselves on the losing end of many games. It's challenging for the players in the organization to find the motivation to consistently put in an effort, especially when ownership isn't willing to reciprocate their efforts. Take the under on the Orioles’ win total at 62.5 (-110)
AL Central: Detroit Tigers Over 77.5 (-110, via DraftKings)
Detroit finished with a record of 77-85 in 2021, and that was good enough for third place in the AL Central. Despite finishing 16.0 games behind the White Sox for the division title, Tigers fans were ecstatic with the results. Detroit went into a complete rebuild a few years ago, and they're finally seeing their young prospects make improvements and develop into quality big leaguers.
Let's start with the young prospects inserted into the Tigers lineup in 2022. Spencer Torkelson will take over at first base, while Riley Greene will have an outfield spot, likely right field. Torkelson ranks near the top of the AL ROY odds at +500, while Greene isn't too far behind at +1000. Both players are set to have breakout seasons for Detroit. The most significant move of the season was adding shortstop Javier Baez on a six-year, $140 million contract. The slugger played 138 games with the Cubs and Mets in 2021 and blasted 31 home runs with 81 RBIs. Robbie Grossman, Jonathan Schoop, and Eric Haase return to the lineup, and the trio combined for 67 long balls.
Newly added Eduardo Rodriguez will slot in at the top of the starting rotation for Detroit. The 28-year-old lefty came over from Boston via free agency and inked a five-year, $77 million contract. Last season, he was 13-8 with a 4.74 ERA and WHIP of 1.39. Below E-Rod will be a group of prospects in Casey Mize (age 24), Tarik Skubal (25), Matt Manning (24), and Tyler Alexander (27). Mize is a righty who made 30 starts in 2021 with a 7-9 record, 3.71 ERA, and 1.14 WHIP. He's set to elevate against this season, and he'll be a mainstay in the rotation for years to come.
While we still have to play the games, the division looks like it belongs to the White Sox as they're stacked from top to bottom. But that doesn’t mean that the Tigers can't take another leap forward as a team and have a successful season. And I believe that they will. Minnesota's lineup is a threat offensively, but they lack pitching, while the Guardians boast an excellent pitching staff and lack hitting. The Tigers are the most well-rounded roster in the division that isn't named the White Sox, and they are going to prove it this season. These young guys are primed for a breakout season, and the pieces they added will sprinkle in ideally. Look for Detroit to win upwards of 83 games this year and take the over on 77.5 wins (-110).
AL West: Texas Rangers Under 74.5 (-105, via DraftKings)
2021 was a season to forget for Rangers fans. The team finished with a record of 60-102, which was 35.0 games out of first place. Like the Tigers, the expectations weren't too high heading into the season as the focus was on developing the prospects. But Texas made a few splashes in the offseason to bring some life back into the fanbase heading into 2022.
They say that everything is bigger in Texas, which holds for the middle infield contracts as the Rangers made a couple of considerable additions in Marcus Semien and Corey Seager. The duo signed a combined $500 million worth of contracts for 17 years (Semien 7y/$175 mil, Seager 10y/$325 mil). That's a half-a-billion dollar infield which is just wild to think about. But other than those two proven stars, the Rangers may have some tough days ahead in terms of offense. Mitch Garver will be behind the dish for Texas, and Nathaniel Lowe will be at first base. While they're quality players, they don't necessarily strike much fear in opposing pitching staffs.
Another acquisition that Texas made brought in right-hander Jon Gray. The ex-Rockie signed a four-year, $56 million contract and will headline the rotation in 2022. Gray is coming off a season where he posted an 8-12 record over 29 starts with a 4.59 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. The hope with Gray is that getting him out of Coors Field will help lower those numbers, and he can be a productive member of the staff. After Gray comes prospect Dane Dunning. Dunning has made 32 starts over two seasons in the big leagues and returned in the trade that sent Lance Lynn to the White Sox. Dunning is a righty with a 4.39 ERA over 34 career outings. This will be a make-or-break year in terms of his development, and we'll see if he can take the next step forward.
While the Astros didn't make much noise in the offseason, they're still set to be one of the better teams in the division. The Mariners made a few interesting additions in Eugenio Suarez, Jesse Winker, Adam Frazier, and Robbie Ray, so they are trending in the right direction. The Angels have a scary top-of-the-lineup with Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, and Anthony Rendon, and they finally made pitching additions in Noah Syndergaard and Michael Lorenzen.
I think every team got better, aside from the A's, who had a fire sale and decided to start from the ground up. The Rangers added a few key pieces, but they aren't going to make much noise in the division, and they're still a few years away from competing. The 17 years’ worth of contracts to Semien and Seager should come into play around year three or four when this team will be a threat with their prospects hopefully developed and contributing. But as for this season, I think the Rangers will struggle and win less than 74.5 games (-105).
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