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MLB World Series Game 1 Odds & Picks: Friday (Diamondbacks vs. Rangers)

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Two teams that are not accustomed to World Series appearances meet to play for this year’s title, as the Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers have a combined three championship appearances in their franchises’ histories. Those who had a crystal ball to predict this unique World Series matchup would now have a lot of money in their pockets, as a $100 preseason bet on a Diamondbacks-Rangers World Series would have paid out $175,000 at BetMGM, per John Ewing.

Although Texas won 90 games in the regular season, the same number as the defending World Champion Houston Astros, the Rangers still have the same feel of an underdog story. So do the 84-win Diamondbacks, since both teams won three consecutive series without having home-field advantage. Both teams lost over 100 games just two years ago, making their appearances in the World Series all the more unlikely.

Read on for Friday’s MLB Best Bet for World Series Game 1.

    Friday's Best MLB Bets

    (Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

    Arizona Diamondbacks (+136) at Texas Rangers (-162) | O/U 8 (-108/-112) 

    Perhaps Torey Lovullo and Bruce Bochy were saving a bullet for this Game 1, as each manager saved one of their best starting pitchers for this matchup in spite of the typical all-hands-on-deck approach to Game 7 of the LCS. Zac Gallen and Nathan Eovaldi are well-rested and should match zeros to keep this opening game low-scoring.

    Many will be down on Arizona’s chances in Game 1, considering the fact that the team lost both of Gallen’s starts against Philadelphia. Gallen was tagged for nine earned runs in 11 combined innings in the NLCS while allowing five home runs. That is dangerous when facing a Rangers offense whose regular season OPS was 107 points higher at Globe Life Field than on the road, while hitting 53 more home runs in their home park.

    However, Gallen struck out 17 Rangers and walked one in his two regular-season meetings with them. He also held Adolis Garcia hitless in five at-bats with two strikeouts, going 2-for-17 with five strikeouts against Arizona overall. That cannot be understated, as Garcia followed up a .934 OPS in September with a 1.102 OPS and a .327/.352/.750 slash line through 12 postseason games. And as long as leadoff man Marcus Semien’s struggles continue (he has a .192/.276/.231 slash line this postseason), Texas will have a much lower offensive ceiling if Garcia cannot continue his superhuman efforts.

    During the playoff run, Nathan Eovaldi has been establishing himself as one of the most dominant postseason pitchers in recent memory. He is the unquestioned ace of the staff during this run, despite not pitching in Game 1 in any series before this. He has recorded a win in all four starts while pitching to a 2.42 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 9.7 K/9. And the fact that all of his postseason starts this year have been quality starts suggests that manager Bruce Bochy has the utmost confidence in him in an age where starting pitchers are getting removed from games quicker than ever.

    Eovaldi’s Stuff+/Location+/Pitching+ playoff splits are 96/106/105 after splits of 101/100/98 in the regular season, so in many regards, he has saved his best work for the postseason.

    We have seen how a longer-than-usual layoff can cool off even the hottest offenses, as the four teams who had two-plus days off this postseason scored 10 total runs in their first playoff games after the long layoff. Thus, we expect that the three days off for Texas two days off in Arizona will cool its hot bats.

    Pick: Under 8 Runs (-112)

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


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    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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