MLB World Series Game 1 Picks: Yankees vs. Dodgers (Friday)
Regardless of which team you root for, it is hard to argue that Major League Baseball got a more compelling World Series matchup than this one between the New York Yankees and the Los Angeles Dodgers. These two storied franchises have met a whopping 11 times in the World Series (the Yankees are 8-3 in the previous 11), but it has been a long time since their last one, as it came way back in 1981.
What do we expect to happen in the anticipated Game 1 on Friday?
Read on for our top MLB picks for Friday, October 25.
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Friday's Top MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
New York Yankees (+106) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-124) | O/U 8.5 (-108/-112)
Regardless of which playoff series one is referring to, the Over has been the safest bet of late. Among the last 12 playoff games, the Over went 10-2, with the only exceptions being Games 1 and 5 of the ALCS that stayed under the closing total by 0.5 runs. Meanwhile, the Over is 9-1-1 in the Dodgers’ 11 playoff games, with 10 games of eight or more runs scored.
One case for the Under is that the week-long layoff would seemingly favor the pitchers over the hitters, as batters rely more on timing while the pitchers benefit from the added rest. However, not only were these the two best offenses in the regular season, they have been the two best through the playoffs thus far.
Los Angeles and New York rank No. 1 and No. 2 of all postseason teams in walk rate (both 12.6% or better), on-base percentage (both .346 or better), wOBA (both .330 or better), and wRC+ (both 117 or better).
The best chance of this game staying under the projected total is if it is close early, as that would force both managers to use their best bullpen arms right away. However, I envision one team taking a comfortable two-to-three run lead early, forcing the losing manager to err cautiously and save some of his team’s best bullpen arms for more high-leverage situations.
In Gerrit Cole’s last four starts (three of which are playoff starts), the game has ended with nine-plus runs. That is not only a testament to New York’s offense, but the fact that Cole has not had the same put-away stuff that he had in the regular season. He has struck out four batters in three consecutive starts, and I expect the Dodgers to work his pitch count with him being removed from the game before the fifth inning.
And Dodgers starter Jack Flaherty also is not immune to the occasional blowup, as he has allowed 12 earned runs in his 15 1/3 postseason innings this year. Also, in his last eight starts, the two teams have combined for nine or more runs six times.
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-108)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.