Navigate

MLB World Series Game 3 Odds & Picks: Monday (Diamondbacks vs. Rangers)

by |

The Arizona Diamondbacks tied up the World Series at one game apiece with Saturday’s convincing 9-1 victory in Game 3. That was Arizona’s World Series first road win in franchise history, as it had been 0-4 before that. Even though home-field advantage switches to the Diamondbacks, who will be at Chase Field for the next three games, the Texas Rangers may have Arizona right where they want it, as they have won each of their first eight road playoff games this postseason.

Read on for Monday’s MLB Best Bet for World Series Game 3.

    Monday's Best MLB Bets

    (Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

    Texas Rangers (-112) at Arizona Diamondbacks (-104) | O/U 9 (-108/-112) 

    Many will back the Over in Game 3, given Max Scherzer’s postseason struggles and the trends emerging in this series. Both of the first two games had double-digit runs scored and went over the projected total. However, each game was close to cashing the Under, and we feel it is the right side with the series shifting to pitcher-friendly Chase Field.

    Eight runs were scored heading to the bottom of the ninth inning in Game 1, but the game went over the total when Arizona closer Paul Sewald blew what would have been his first postseason save. In Game 2, the two teams combined for three runs through the first six innings, until the floodgates opened. Texas saved most of their high-leverage middle relievers after using them in Game 1 and sent three starting pitchers out for relief appearances after Game 2 got out of reach.

    Arizona scored an unsustainable seven two-out runs in Game 2 after scoring zero in Game 1. The Diamondbacks also had incredible production from the bottom of the lineup, with their 7-9 hitters going 5-for-10 with four runs scored and three RBIs. However, Christian Walker remains unproductive from the heart of the order. He is now 2-for-13 with runners in scoring position this postseason after a regular season where he hit 33 home runs and drove in 103 runs.

    Arizona held Texas to its fewest hits (four) and runs in a postseason game this year. The pitching staff, primarily Merrill Kelly, did a much better job throwing strikes than in Game 1, where they combined to walk 10 batters and allowed 20 total baserunners. If throwing strikes is needed to keep Texas off the basepaths, rookie Brandon Pfaadt should comply, as he has a 22-3 K-BB ratio through four starts this postseason.

    Rangers righty Max Scherzer has been tagged for seven earned runs through 6 2/3 innings this postseason. However, we expect positive regression from the veteran, as he still induced eight whiffs in a poor ALCS Game 3 outing and allowed just two barrels on his nine hard-hit balls. Scherzer’s velocity was also up on four of his five primary pitches in Game 7, which suggests he has a lot left in the tank after missing over a month at the end of the regular season.

    This is a contrarian play in spite of Texas averaging 7.4 runs per game with 13 home runs and 32 extra-base hits in eight postseason games thus far, along with the Over cashing in seven of the Rangers’ last eight games.

    Pick: Under 9 Runs (-112)

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:


    Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

    Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

    BettingPros App