MLB World Series Home Run Prop Bets: Friday (Game 1)
The 2024 World Series gets underway on Friday night, as the New York Yankees attempt to win their 28th World Series title. They'll take on the Dodgers, who are searching for their eighth MLB World Series victory. From a sports betting perspective, I've sifted through the numbers and matchups, narrowing in on three home run prop bets for Game 1. Here are three players who are primed to touch’em all under the primetime lights.
Game 1’s pitching matchup features a battle between Gerrit Cole and Jack Flaherty. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET from Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA.
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MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Anthony Rizzo (+750)
I am 100% looking to fade Jack Flaherty in this spot. The right-hander has been completely hit-or-miss this postseason, going 1-2 with a 7.04 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over just 15.1 innings of work. The right-hander has given up three big flies, which equates to a 1.76 HR/9 rate. During the regular season, Flaherty logged a slightly elevated 1.33 HR/9 rate.
New York's roster is slashing .304/.426/.518 against Flaherty, but one man has issued the bulk of the damage - Anthony Rizzo. Rizzo is 9-for-21 (.429) against the Los Angeles hurler with three bombs and a double. The left-handed slugger has been very productive this postseason, going 6-for-14 (.429) with a double and two walks (.500 on-base percentage). He hasn't left the yard in the playoffs, but he's a veteran guy with October experience. I think Rizzo's worth a sprinkle with at his +750 price tag.
Mookie Betts (+500) & Enrique Hernandez (+1000)
I'm honestly not too confident in either of these "aces" taking the mound in Game 1. Gerrit Cole has been much better than Flaherty, but still brings in a mediocre 3.31 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in three playoff starts (16.1 innings). He has given up one bomb this postseason, which equates to a 0.55 HR/9 rate. The right-hander has been far from untouchable, conceding 19 hits in 16.1 postseason innings.
This Los Angeles roster isn't one you want to face when you're not at your best. They finished the regular season ranked first in OPS (.781), third in home runs (233) and fourth in team batting average (.258). Some of the Dodgers' biggest stars have found success against Cole, including Mookie Betts, who's 7-for-17 (.412) with a double. Betts has been crushing the ball during this run to the World Series, mashing four home runs while logging a 1.063 OPS. I'll back Betts to touch’em all tonight.
If you're looking for a longshot, I think Enrique Hernandez is our guy. The Los Angeles util-man has seen Cole well, going 8-for-21 (.381) against him with a home run and three doubles. Hernandez has had some big moments during this run, launching two home runs while hitting .303 with a .863 OPS. He loves the bright lights. I'll throw a few bucks on him considering his current form and this matchup against Cole.
Highest HR/9 Starting Pitchers Today
- Jack Flaherty (1.33, 162.0 IP)
- Gerrit Cole (1.04, 95.0 IP)