Monday Night Football Odds, Picks & Predictions: Bills vs. Bengals (Week 17)
The Buffalo Bills (12-3) will travel to face the Cincinnati Bengals (11-4) on Monday in the final game of Week 17 of the NFL calendar. Cincinnati’s Paycor Stadium will play host for what’s supposed to be a warmer-than-average evening on the banks of the Ohio River.
Let’s look closely at how this one might play out and where the odds are headed.
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Monday Night Football Odds, Picks & Predictions: Bills vs. Bengals (Week 17)
Details
- Opening Line: Bengals +2 | O/U 49.5
- Current Line: Bengals +1.5 | O/U 47.5
- Last meeting: Sept. 22, 2019 - Bengals 17, Bills 21
Overview
The Bills have won six straight games coming into Monday, having most recently easily covered as 8-point spread favorites in Week 16 after defeating the Chicago Bears 35-13 on the road.
The Bengals are also red hot, having picked up seven straight victories. In their latest triumph, they defeated the New England Patriots on the road, 22-18, despite being three-point underdogs.
On the moneyline and spread, the Bills are a modest favorite in this game, according to the odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook. The over/under for this “Monday Night Football†game is 47.5, one of the highest totals for Week 17, down from the opener of 49.5.
It has been difficult for visiting teams to win at Paycor Stadium, but the Bills have the best chance of doing so in Cincy. With a road scoring average of 25.8 points, 392.8 total yards (No. 3 in the league), and a +7.8 scoring margin this season, they are among the top NFL teams on the road.
I also respect the Bills’ potential for making stops when they count. They limit opponents’ third-down conversion rates to 37.9%, while the Bengals have limited opponents’ third-down conversion rates to 39.8% in their own right. Even if there’s not a huge difference, it’s important to note that the Patriots, whose offense has struggled all season, converted on 46.2% of third downs on this Cincy defense.
Bottom Line
It will be a difficult day for Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ offense, as the Bills also average 1.6 takeaways per game and have produced 39 sacks thus far. The Bills should prevail in this game as long as their defense can capitalize on any errors made by Cincinnati.
Look for a close game going into the fourth quarter, but for the Super Bowl-favorite Bills to pull away late, led by the best offense in the NFL down the stretch
Pick: Bills -1.5
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