Monday Night Football Odds, Picks & Predictions: Rams vs. 49ers (Week 4)
Here is an early look at our odds, picks, and predictions for the NFL Week 4 Monday Night Football game, Rams vs. 49ers.
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NFL Week 4 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Rams vs. 49ers
Divisional rivals face off on Monday night to close out week 4. The Rams are coming off a defensive-driven win while the 49ers look to bounce back from an abysmal offensive performance on Sunday night at Denver.
While the Rams have had trouble holding onto the football, their defense hasn’t lacked the takeaways averaging 2.3 per game. The 49ers have 5 turnovers thus far, and three of them came with Garoppolo under shotgun.
With that said, the 49ers have the second least yards allowed per game at 227, and only 148 yards per game given up through the air. This is a resilient 49ers defense that showed their ability against the Broncos last week. The question is whether the offense will show up. Watch for them to get the offense figured out against the divisional foe.
Rams at 49ers: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Rams Offense vs. 49ers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.048 | 19 | -0.166 | 4 | -15 |
| Total SR | 48.3% | 6 | 34.5% | 1 | -5 |
| Total DVOA | -6.1% | 18 | -28.5% | 3 | -15 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.027 | 21 | -0.169 | 5 | -16 |
| Dropback SR | 52.6% | 5 | 35.3% | 1 | -4 |
| Pass DVOA | 5.2% | 16 | -24.7% | 5 | -11 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.5% | 25 | 10.2% | 3 | -22 |
| Rush EPA | -0.086 | 19 | -0.161 | 8 | -11 |
| Rush SR | 40.3% | 20 | 33.3% | 4 | -16 |
| Rush DVOA | -3.2% | 14 | -32.6% | 3 | -11 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.15 | 22 | 3.36 | 5 | -17 |
| Yards per Play | 5.3 | 18 | 3.9 | 1 | -17 |
| Points per Game | 20.3 | 15 | 12.3 | 3 | -12 |
49ers Offense vs. Rams Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.094 | 27 | -0.008 | 14 | -13 |
| Total SR | 41.3% | 24 | 44.0% | 14 | -10 |
| Total DVOA | -12.0% | 23 | -0.3% | 16 | -7 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.108 | 25 | 0.128 | 23 | -2 |
| Dropback SR | 41.0% | 24 | 47.4% | 19 | -5 |
| Pass DVOA | 3.9% | 19 | 16.4% | 22 | 3 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.0% | 23 | 6.1% | 21 | -2 |
| Rush EPA | -0.080 | 15 | -0.290 | 1 | -14 |
| Rush SR | 41.6% | 14 | 36.9% | 8 | -6 |
| Rush DVOA | -16.2% | 20 | -30.6% | 4 | -16 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.20 | 21 | 4.17 | 10 | -11 |
| Yards per Play | 5.1 | 21 | 5.3 | 14 | -7 |
| Points per Game | 15.7 | 28 | 23.3 | 20 | -8 |
Bet for Rams at 49ers: 49ers -1.5, Lean o42.5
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