Monday Night Football Player Props, Picks & Predictions: Bengals vs. Browns (2022)
A battle in the AFC North on Halloween night should be a good one. The Browns look to avoid falling too far out of the race as they bide their time waiting for Deshaun Watson. But the Bengals have all the motivation they need, as Cincinnati can tie for the division lead with a win on the road.
Can Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ passing attack put a scare into the Browns, even with Ja’Marr Chase on the mend?
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Monday Night Football Player Props, Picks & Predictions (Bengals vs. Browns)
Tyler Boyd Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-115 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Tyler Boyd has been a preferred target of Joe Burrow over the last couple of weeks, hauling in 14 of 15 targets for 221 yards and a touchdown. Boyd cleared this FanDuel yardage total in both games. Now he projects to be more of a necessity than he’s ever been, as lead receiver Ja’Marr Chase will miss Monday’s game and likely others after it with a hip injury.
Even as Boyd thrived over the past two weeks, Chase was busy soaking up 15 receptions and 262 yards of the team’s gaudy passing total. Though Tee Higgins is still around to command a significant portion of Burrow’s attention, Boyd has been a more relevant field stretcher the past couple of weeks.
Burrow has been dialed in with his performance of late. He should try to sprinkle the ball around through the air again on Monday. Even against a Cleveland defense allowing just 210 passing yards per game, Boyd’s recent efforts and the absence of Chase should combine to lock in Boyd’s target share to a level that makes this line quite attainable.
Nick Chubb Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-120 via FanDuel)
The Bengals have only allowed three rushing touchdowns all season, making theirs one of the NFL’s stiffest red zone run defenses. But the Browns know who butters their bread. Cleveland should be expected to test the mettle of the Cincinnati interior defenders if given the chance.
Nick Chubb has been one of the most prolific touchdown scorers in the league this season. He has found paydirt on the ground eight times on the year. He’s also done it in five of seven games this season, twice rumbling for multiple touchdown scores.
As a run defense, Cincinnati has allowed 4.6 yards per attempt. That ranks in the lower half of the league. So it’s a team that you can attack on the ground. That success just hasn’t translated very often to goal-line scenarios just yet. If there’s a running back that can alter that trend, it’s Chubb, whose Touchdown Scorer odds of -120 seem awfully friendly given the trends of his season.
Joe Burrow Over 34.5 Pass Attempts (-105 via DraftKings)
The Bengals tie for fifth in the NFL in passing attempts at 38.7 per game this season. Joe Burrow has cleared the pass attempts total at DraftKings for Monday night in six of seven games this season. However, the problem for this particular match-up could be Cleveland’s ability to limit such attempts overall this season.
The Browns rank third in the NFL this season in Time Of Possession, which inherently limits their opponents’ opportunities with the football. Cleveland doesn’t necessarily operate slowly on a per-play basis, but its use of the running game means fewer incompletions and clock stoppages. The Browns run 67.0 plays per game, but their opponents don’t usually get as many.
However, the Bengals could be the exception due to their effective passing offense. Cincinnati also has run precisely 67.0 plays per game on the season. With Ja’Marr Chase in the lineup, the Bengals have leaned heavily toward life as a passing offense. Cleveland’s poor run defense and Chase’s absence could leave Cincinnati more willing to establish the run than usual. However, I’m still betting that Burrow ends up being the Bengals’ most prominent player in a projected close game.
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