Monday Night Football Player Props, Picks & Predictions: Broncos vs. Chargers (2022)
Another week, another episode of Russell Wilson in primetime. What did we do to deserve all this?
No, seriously…what did we do? Anyway, this AFC West match-up may have been billed as more of an explosive offensive game when the schedule-makers were setting it up. Will the defenses rule the day once against in primetime or can Russ and Justin Herbert cook up an exciting battle?
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Monday Night Football Player Props, Picks & Predictions (Broncos vs. Chargers)
Austin Ekeler Over 101.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114 via FanDuel, -115 via DraftKings)
After a rusty beginning to the season, Austin Ekeler has definitively arrived over the past two weeks to lead the Chargers as the heart and soul of the offense. Ekeler has compiled 19 and 20 touches in two Chargers wins over the Texans and Browns, showing equally threatening ability through the air and on the ground.
Ekeler scored multiple touchdowns in both wins, finding pay dirt in the receiving and running game in each contest while totaling five touchdowns across the two games. His remarkable nose for the end zone makes his TD Scorer prop (-135 via FanDuel) seem like free money. You wouldn’t be crazy to throw down on Ekeler with 2+ Touchdowns (+470 via FanDuel), either. But with the consistency of his involvement, we’re going to highlight specifically the value of his scrimmage yardage total.
Ekeler has cleared this line of 101.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards in each of the past two weeks, exploding most recently for 199 yards from scrimmage against the Browns. The Chargers’ offense has been at its best when it has leaned on Ekeler in both facets of the offense, and now that he’s delivering, there’s no reason to look in another direction to find the engine for the offense.
Russell Wilson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+142 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Whatever the reason, things have just not gone as planned for the Broncos’ offense under Russell Wilson so far. Instead of bringing in the big-armed quarterback to pair with the new innovative, offensive-minded head coach, neither Wilson nor Nathaniel Hackett has brought much excitement to Denver.
Wilson has just one game this season in which he has thrown for multiple touchdown passes, but the game in which it happened might contain a script that feels familiar for Monday night. Two weeks ago, Wilson tossed a pair of scores on the road against an AFC West rival (Las Vegas) in a game that Denver entered as underdogs against a relatively friendly passing defense.
The stars could be aligning in a similar fashion this week, as the Chargers have allowed an average of 2.0 passing touchdowns against them per game. Only the Chiefs, Titans, and those same Raiders have allowed more. Wilson’s team isn’t expected to win on Monday, but putting the responsibility on Wilson to throw frequently in an effort to keep pace with Herbert seems plausible. I hate betting on Wilson to do anything positive with what we’ve seen from him this season, but the data suggests this heavy plus-money line on the Over is too interesting to ignore.
Courtland Sutton Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-110 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Though Wilson hasn’t been incredibly efficient throwing the football, the drum beat for his top receiving weapon has been more stable than you might think. Courtland Sutton seems to be Russell’s top target in the Broncos’ receiving corps.
Never seeing fewer than seven targets in a game, Sutton has a season-low receiving total of 52 yards. His second-worst output in a five-game stretch to start the season? 72 yards. That means Sutton has cleared this line of 68.5 receiving yards in four of five games on the year. Sutton posted 97 and 122 yards, respectively, in Denver’s two wins this season. Though the Broncos aren’t favored in Monday’s game, they do get the benefit of an opposing passing defense that allows the 13th-most passing yards per game in the NFL this season, as the Chargers cough up an average of 237.8 passing yards to their opponents.
DraftKings lists Sutton’s receiving line at 66.5, but you have a pay a -125 premium to bet the Over. Even giving up the two additional yards, we prefer the value at FanDuel for this prop.
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