Monday Night Football Same Game Parlay Picks (Bears vs. Patriots)
On Monday night, the Chicago Bears and New England Patriots square off in a huge game for both teams. The Patriots hope to go above .500 for the first time this season, while the Bears are clinging to their playoff hopes and trying to avoid falling to 2-5. Mac Jones’ return will be the major storyline for New England as he returns from his ankle injury and takes over for backup Bailey Zappe. Chicago is coming off of a long week following a loss to Washington last Thursday.
The Patriots are favored by 8.5 points, and the game’s total is 40.5 points. The books expect this to be a low-scoring game, with the Patriots likely to come out ahead. I’ve found a four-leg parlay on Draftkings with exceptional value that I’ll be playing for the game.
- Monday Night Football Touchdown Scorer Prop Bet Picks (Bears vs. Patriots)
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Leg 1: Patriots -2.5 (-285)
With Mac Jones returning from injury and the Patriots’ defense playing well over the last couple of weeks, this is an exceptional spot for New England to pick up a win and get back to above .500. While their 3-3 record isn’t anything too exciting, their three losses have come against steep competition (@ Miami, vs. Baltimore, @ Green Bay). They’re coming off back-to-back big wins beating the Lions and Browns by a combined score of 67-15.
Chicago, on the other hand, has been a bit of a mess this season. Their 2-4 record has them avoiding the bottom of the NFC standings, but their two wins came in the form of a rain-soaked flukey Week 1 victory over the 49ers and a last-second win over the 1-4-1 Texans. They’re 0-3 with a -32 point differential on the road. On top of that, QB Justin Fields has struggled to read defenses at a high level – the pro game still looks fast for him. Bill Belichick is known for stumping young QBs with unique defensive looks.
I expect the Patriots to win this game handily – the alternate line here gives us key numbers within our range of outcomes, but if you were looking to get aggressive, I expect the Patriots to cover the 8.5-point spread as well.
Leg 2: David Montgomery u64.5 Rush Yards (-230)
Bears RB David Montgomery has had an up-and-down start to the season. In five games, he has 246 rush yards on 62 attempts (4.0 yards per carry). A large chunk of this came against the Packers in Week 3, when he posted an impressive 122 yards on just 15 carries. Outside of this game, he averages just 2.6 yards per carry.
I don’t expect Monday’s game against New England to be one of Montgomery’s better games of the season. The Patriots allow 89 rushing yards per game to running backs, putting them in the league’s top half for rush yards per game. Last game, they allowed the excellent Browns’ run game to post just 68 yards on 16 carries.
With my expectation that the Patriots will win this game without much trouble, I don’t think Montgomery will be fed many carries due to game flow. This under should hit comfortably against a good defense and splitting carries with Khalil Herbert.
Leg 3: Rhamondre Stevenson o89.5 Rush Yards (+290)
Rhamondre Stevenson has been exceptional in the Patriots’ backfield in recent weeks. He averages 5.1 yards per carry this year and has rushed for 303 yards in his last 3 games on 58 carries.
RB Damien Harris will join Stevenson in the Patriots’ backfield on Monday after missing the Patriots’ last game with an injury. Harris should take some carries from Stevenson, but I think Stevenson has emerged as the lead dog in this backfield. I expect him to get a leading share of carries for the Patriots’ backfield.
This pick aligns with my expectation for the game as a whole – the Patriots will likely stake a lead in the first half and be running the ball late to end the game. Given that Chicago allows the third-most rush yards per game to RBs (122.8), I think this is a great choice for an aggressive SGP leg.
Leg 4: DeVante Parker U34.5 Receiving Yards (-150)
The Bears’ defense hasn’t been great in 2022, but they do have one definitive strength – defending WRs. Chicago is a top 5 defense, allowing the fewest catches and yards to WRs this season. I expect this trend to persist Monday against the Patriots’ weak WR core.
DeVante Parker has had a particularly bumpy season, while Mac Jones has been QB. He has one monster game against Baltimore, but outside of this explosion, he’s posted just three catches for 33 yards across three games with Jones starting. With the run game being the clear weakness of the Bears’ defense, Jones coming back from injury, and a scenario where the Patriots don’t need to throw to win, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Parker shut down on Monday night.
Parlay Odds: +700
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