Monday Night Football Same Game Parlay Picks: Broncos vs. Chargers (Week 6)
On Monday, the Broncos and Chargers will square off in a game with huge implications for both teams. Denver is coming off a long week after their ugly Thursday Night loss to the Colts last week, and they desperately need a win to build confidence and start turning their season around. Los Angeles, on the other hand, is looking to stay hot after a win in Cleveland last week as they contend for the AFC West title.
The Chargers are 4.5 point favorites, with a total on the game of 45.5. Based on the game flow I’m expecting and the trends these teams have shown early in the season, I’ve found a four-leg Same Game Parlay on Draftkings with exceptional value.
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(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Justin Herbert Under 304.5 Pass Yds (-280)
Through five games this season, Justin Herbert has averaged 295 passing yards per game. He has two games of over 330 yards, and his massive arm makes the deep ball a constant threat. Even still, I think the Broncos’ defense will hold Herbert in check Monday night.
So far this season, the Denver defense has allowed opposing QBs to throw for just 204 yards per game. This mark is the third-lowest in the NFL. They hadn’t allowed a QB to throw for more than 210 yards all year until Matt Ryan posted 250 yards on 41 attempts last week.
With Keenan Allen still injured and Broncos star CB Pat Surtain likely to be matched up with Mike Williams all game, I don’t expect Herbert to have much opportunity to make plays in the passing game. The Chargers may opt to lean on their run game in order to expose a relatively weak spot for the Broncos’ defense. I don’t see a big game out of Justin Herbert as a likely outcome Monday night.
Mike Williams Under 84.5 Rec Yds (-200)
For many of the reasons I don’t see Herbert having a big night, I also don’t expect Mike Williams to put up big numbers against the Broncos.
Pat Surtain’s coverage is likely to give Mike Williams trouble all night. In five games, Surtain has been targeted just 33 times – a 23% share of all targets with Surtain on the field. This is despite frequently lining up against the other team’s top receiving threat. Surtain has allowed just 21 catches on these targets for a total of 165 yards. 85 yards for Williams is a high bar given this level of defense.
Williams is off to a nice start this season, but he’s been wildly inconsistent. In every game this year, his yardage total has ended either over 110 or under 15. With my expectation that the Chargers won’t throw too aggressively, and Surtain likely to be covering him for most of the game, I think Williams is more likely to put up a dud than a big game this week.
Chargers Team Total Under 27.5 (-170)
When building a Same Game Parlay, it’s important that the legs of the parlay align to form a cohesive game flow. If the Broncos’ pass defense shows up Monday night, I don’t see the Chargers’ offense putting big numbers up.
Even if the Chargers win the game, the Herbert/Williams legs of this parlay align with a conservative, run-heavy game plan. 28 points is a high mark to hit – the Chargers have gone above this number twice this season, against two bad defenses (Houston and Cleveland).
To keep this SGP aligned, I love the price we’re getting here.
Courtland Sutton Anytime TD (+180)
While Russell Wilson’s first few weeks in Denver have left a lot to be desired, he’s building a great rapport with Courtland Sutton. Through five games this season, Sutton has 417 yards on 29 catches with one TD.
Importantly for this play, Sutton has been Wilson’s favorite red zone target. Sutton has 4 catches on 9 targets in the red zone this year – both marks are the highest on the team. This share of opportunity should only increase with Javonte Williams out for the rest of the season – Williams is second on the team in red zone targets, even after missing last week’s game.
The Chargers have had particular trouble defending WRs this year. They’ve allowed opposing WRs to score 7 TDs through 5 games – the third most in the NFL. Given that Sutton is likely to get some red zone looks and the Chargers’ defense allows WRs to score at a disproportionately high rate, the price offered here is an excellent value.
Total Parlay Odds: +675
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