Myrtle Beach Bowl: College Football 2022 Bowl Game Best Picks & Predictions (Marshall vs. UConn)
Here’s a look at the bowl-game spreads and totals for Myrtle Beach Bowl with my projections. You can also find my best bets. And here are all of my best bowl game bets for the upcoming week.
2022: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%) | 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
Note: Spreads are from the favorite’s perspective. ATL stands for “Adjusted Thor Line.†ATT stands for “Adjusted Thor Total.â€
Myrtle Beach Bowl: College Football 2022 Bowl Game Best Bets
Myrtle Beach Bowl | Conway, SC
Monday, December 19 | 1:30 PM
Marshall (-10) vs. Connecticut | Total: 41
ATL: Marshall -12.1 | ATT: 37.5
Marshall
QB Peter Zamora (Transfer portal)
WR Talik Keaton (Injury)
DE Emmanuel Balogun (Transfer portal)
RB Rasheen Ali, who rushed for 1,401 yards and 23 TD last year, missed the first 10 games of the season to address his mental health. He showed no rust in the final two games, rushing for a combined 181 yards over 32 carries against Georgia Southern and Georgia State. He and RB Khalan Laborn are a devastating 1-2 punch.
WR Keaton was the team’s WR2 prior to suffering a lower-body injury in late-October. Keaton did not play in November and is considered questionable to play. It was only a small drop-off to Keaton’s backups. QB Zamora, buried on the depth chart, took only six snaps this season. DE Balogun appeared in all 12 games off the bench, but his 103 snaps ranked 23rd on Marshall’s defense.
UCONN
QB ​​Ta’Quan Roberson (Injury)
RB Nathan Carter (Transfer portal)
RB Brian Brewton (Injury)
WR Cam Ross (Injury)
WR Keelan Marion (Injury)
WR Darius Bush (Transfer portal)
WR Nigel Fitzgerald (Injury)
RB Carter was limited to 137 snaps this fall due to injury. WRs Ross and Marion have been injured, but they’ve both been given an outside shot to return for this game. That development would certainly help UConn’s aerial attack.
QB Roberson, who began the year as the starter, suffered a season-ending injury in the opener. RB Brewton, who appeared in only three games this fall, has elbow and finger injuries that have his status up in the air. WR Fitzgerald suffered a season-ending knee injury in September. WR Bush only played a few snaps this fall.
Handicap
Both teams are run-heavy, ranking in the top-20 in rush rate. Both offenses are poor overall – Marshall is No. 122 SP+, UConn is No. 124 – thanks to poor passing attacks. Both teams are led by reliable defenses, each of which boasts top-20 tackle rates nationally.
Marshall is simply a better version of what UConn wants to be. The Thundering Herd’s run game is legitimately dangerous at full-strength, and Marshall’s defense is downright nasty, ranking No. 8 SP+.
UConn will have zero success through the air. The Huskies are also going to meet big resistance on the ground. The Huskies’ rushing attack ranks No. 81 in success rate and No. 22 in explosion. Marshall’s elite run defense ranks No. 4 and No. 13, respectively, in those two categories.
That’s one issue for UConn. The other is that, flipping the field, UConn doesn’t have the run defense to slow Marshall’s one-two punch of Laborn and Ali. Marshall’s run game ranks No. 69 in success rate and No. 54 in explosion – the majority of that sample size without Ali, it’s important to note – while UConn’s defense ranked No. 107 and No. 81 in those categories.
But the Herd don’t exactly project to light up the scoreboard here, either. Though we think the Herd will win this game, a double-digit spread is scary against a UConn team that has consistently surprised this year (9-3 ATS) by playing tough and keeping things close against more-talented teams.
Instead of making a referendum on the side, we’re playing the under. The under has hit in five-of-seven games to close the season for UConn. Marshall, meanwhile, was an under machine this year, with the under 9-3 in Herd games.
The pick: Under 41
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