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NBA Best Bets, Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (2/2)

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Let’s look at the best bets from Tuesday’s slate of games.

And check out our other top picks for Thursday:

For the season, my NBA ‘Best Bets’ have gone 22-13 ATS

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>

Today’s Best NBA Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Los Angeles Clippers @ Milwaukee Bucks

The Clippers have played very well lately, but I fear that they’re running into a buzzsaw in Milwaukee. With the return of SF Khris Middleton, the Bucks are as healthy as they’ve been all season. Milwaukee has won seven of eight, with their lone loss coming as a result of both Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo not suiting up. Furthermore, the Bucks rank fifth in the NBA in Net Rating at home and consistently cover the number (17-9 ATS) on their home court.

We mentioned how well the Clippers have been playing– they, too, have won six of seven, with their lone loss coming with neither Kawhi Leonard nor Paul George in the lineup (and to the Cavs). Even with the inclusion of that loss, the Clippers rate first in the NBA in Net Rating over this seven-game span. But guess who ranks second: the Bucks. In addition, and despite the Clippers’ rest management efforts, fatigue must be considered. Los Angeles has played one home game since January 18th, and both Leonard and George logged 40 minutes of action in Chicago on Tuesday. It’s often unwise to bet situationally, but this is as rough as it gets for LAC.

In short: this is a fair number to bet on a better team and better players. The Clippers, and especially Kawhi, have been stellar of late, but it’s a tall task to usurp a healthy Bucks team on their home floor.

Bet: Bucks -4 (-110)

Miami Heat @ New York Knicks

The wrong team’s favored here, and that’s all there is to it. The Knicks have been a team of runs, constantly flip-flopping between stretches of prosperity and futility. They’re currently enduring the latter, as New York has dropped six of their last eight games– chiefly as a result of their abysmal fourth-quarter Net Rating. With that said, the Heat may not profile as a team capable of taking advantage of the Knicks in this aspect. It’s been the Knicks’ defense that has haunted them at the end of games, and Miami rates 25th in the NBA in Points per Possession.

Furthermore, the Knicks have been the better team, on the whole, this season. New York rates 9th in Adjusted Net Rating to Miami’s 16th and have only been passed by the Heat in the Eastern Conference by virtue of a favorable recent schedule: Over their past 10 games, the Heat beat the Bucks without Giannis twice, the hampered Pelicans twice, and the Celtics absent Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, and Al Horford.

Don’t let Miami’s recent success fool you. The Knicks have been the better team on the year and deserve to be favored at home.

Bet: Knicks +2 (-110)

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