Top NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (4/21)
Some of the NBA's best are in action on Sunday. Four more Game 1s are on the schedule as the Playoffs continue to heat up. Here are a few of my best bets for this loaded slate.
Sunday’s Best Top NBA Bets
Miami Heat at Boston Celtics
This series is a rematch of three of the last four Eastern Conference Finals. Of course, this time, there is far less intrigue, as Jimmy Butler isn't expected to play for Miami. This is a major blow for the Heat, especially on the defensive end. The Heat were a top-five team defensively this season per adjusted defensive rating metrics. His loss will be felt against this Boston team.
The Celtics were the best team in the NBA by many metrics, but especially on the offensive end. They were the second-best shooting team per eFG% and took care of the ball better than all but one team. These will be key against a Miami team that turned teams over at a top-eight rate in the league. Without Butler, who is one of the better ball stealers in the league, Miami may struggle even more.
One of Miami's biggest strengths on defense is that they don't foul their opponents. However, Boston doesn't rely on getting to the line to score points as they're just 24th in free throw rate in the league. Erik Spoelstra has shown that he can scheme well against some of the best Boston teams over the past few years. The spread on this game is pretty large, and it's enough to keep me away, although I like Boston to win comfortably. However, I think the total is moving in the wrong direction. Miami showed that they can still put up some points without Butler in their win over Chicago. Playoff totals tend to run lower, but this has gone too far.
Pick: Over 208.5 (-110)
Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Clippers
No team in the NBA was hotter to end the season than the Dallas Mavericks. This team won 16 of 18 before sitting all its stars in the last two games of the season. Led by MVP hopeful Luka Doncic, the Mavericks landed the fifth seed in the Western Conference. They'll take on a Los Angeles Clippers team that, again, is unsure about Kawhi Leonard’s health. These are two elite offenses, and this series should be exciting.
The Mavericks have been one of the best shooting teams in the league. Their eFG% was seventh in the league, and they thrived in all three levels, including a shooting percentage at the rim that was best in the league. However, it's their three-point shooting that drives the offense. Only Boston takes a high percentage of shots from deep, and Dallas hits these shots at a 36.9% clip. The Clippers have allowed teams to shoot about a league-average rate from beyond the arch. If Leonard isn't at full health, the defense could suffer even more.
Clearly there's already some thought that Leonard may not play with the Mavericks currently the favorites. If he's officially ruled out and unable to play, this line may move even more. Even if he does play, Dallas probably isn't being rated properly, as they've thrived since the trade deadline with the additions of PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford. Throw on top of this that Dallas has the two best offensive threats with Doncic and Kyrie Irving and it's starting to look like Sunday will a great start to a big series for Dallas.
Pick: Mavericks -2.5 (-110)
New Orleans Pelicans at Oklahoma City Thunder
The Pelicans put up an impressive performance to sink the Kings and secure the eighth seed. They'll travel to Oklahoma City to take on the Thunder, who secured the first seed on the final day of the season. Without Zion Williamson, it'll be a tall task trying to make this a series. Game one will tell us how well they can match up with this young and talented Thunder team.
If Oklahoma City had an older roster profile, they may be considered a real favorite to win the title this year. A third-ranked offense and a fourth-ranked defense per adjusted net ratings propelled them to the top spot in the Western Conference Playoffs. They were an elite shooting team at all three levels. Their 38.8% from deep was the best clip in the NBA. Defensively, they force turnovers at the best rate in the league and hold opponents to the lowest shooting percentage around the rim. It's tough to find a weak spot in this resume.
Looking at New Orleans' profile, you find what may be the type of team to take advantage of this matchup. The Pelicans held opponents to the second-best 3P% in the league. This wasn't a case of low volume, either. Only Chicago allowed a higher percentage of opponent field goal attempts from deep. Additionally, they're an excellent rebounding team that sits sixth in defensive rebounding rate. Their strength on the boards can exploit the one weak spot on the Thunder.
The line is mildly inflated with the Pelicans missing Zion Williamson. New Orleans has the recipe to compete with this Thunder team even without their star. I like the Pelicans to keep this one close and maybe even pull out the upset.
Pick: Pelicans +8.5 (-110)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday: