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NBA Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (3/18)

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For the season, my NBA Best Bets have gone 36-22-1 ATS. Let’s check out my favorites for today!

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Saturday:

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Saturday’s Best NBA Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

New York Knicks vs. Denver Nuggets

Let’s be worried about the Nuggets for a bit. Denver has lost four of their last six games, with their two wins being both unimpressive and fortunate. It is now seven straight games that the Nuggets have been either tied (once) or trailing heading into the fourth quarter. We can be worried, right?

These last two weeks, the Nuggets rate 21st in Net Rating and 24th in Pts/Poss differential. For context, Denver is fifth and sixth in these respective categories for the year. If we didn’t know better, Denver looks like a fringe play-in team in the West– not the Conference’s top seed, with the reigning 2x MVP on their roster. The team’s fall from grace is inexplicable but inarguable, and it would be fortuitous to expect that they solve their issues in the Garden this Saturday afternoon.

Let’s talk about the Knicks. New York actually rates higher than the Nuggets in Adjusted Net Rating for the year and is the NBA’s second-best team in Pts/Poss differential since the All-Star break. Further, the team may get G Jalen Brunson back (click here for full injury reports), and his return to the court should only bolster New York’s chances for victory.

There’s no good sell for Denver right now, and it’s very likely that their skid continues until they return home to Colorado. Bet the Knicks, this game should be a pick’em (at the least).

Bet: Knicks +2 (-110)

Toronto Raptors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

I’ll keep it brief because the analysis is almost entirely situational– bet the Raptors. Minnesota is coming into this game a night after falling to the Bulls in 2OT, and tired legs on the tail-end of a back-to-back is a recipe for failure. The Minnesota starters all played 40+ minutes with the exception of Rudy Gobert (33 mins, fouled out) and Anthony Edwards (8 mins, exited with an ankle injury). It would be a shock if Edwards suits up here, and rest is not off of the table for the rest of the T-Wolves.

Minnesota is a generally underrated team, and we likely would have backed them in Toronto were it not for the circumstances– but they don’t have much depth. Anthony Edwards (their best player per WAR) almost certainly won’t play. Every game counts for the Wolves right now, and an out-of-conference bout with Toronto is far less crucial to their playoff chances. It’s entirely possible that the organization concedes this contest as a rest/ injury management game. Bet this number on Toronto now, it won’t last.

Bet: Raptors -6.5 (-110)

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