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NBA Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (3/4)

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For the season, my NBA Best Bets have gone 31-19-1 ATS. Let’s check out my favorites for Saturday.

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Saturday:

Saturday’s Best NBA Bets

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Detroit Pistons

It’s a big number but a necessary bet. The Pistons’ injury report is debilitating, and their current rotation may well be the worst in the NBA. Detroit has failed to cover the spread vs. Cleveland in each of their previous three matchups, losing their most recent game by 28 points. It’s not a fair fight between these two teams, and there’s no reason to suggest that the Pistons are better equipped to hang with Cleveland on Saturday.

Regarding the Cavs: Cleveland has sputtered since the All-Star break, but none of their losses have been egregious. In their two home games since league-wide play resumed, the team nearly took down the Nuggets on their home floor and throttled the Raptors. To reiterate– the Pistons are not on the level of any of these teams and shouldn’t be able to slow down a Cleveland team competing for the Eastern Conference’s no.4 seed.

The only hesitation in this bet is that Cleveland G Donovan Mitchell appeared to re-injure his groin in their loss to Boston, but Mitchell still dropped 40+ in that game and was a full participant in practice on Friday. Take the Cavs, and don’t look back. Even at -11.5, Cleveland is still undervalued here.

Bet: Cavaliers -11.5 (-110)

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Philadelphia 76ers

These two Eastern Conference heavyweights have met twice this season, and both games were contentious. Expect more of the same tonight.

The Bucks are the hottest team in hoops, having won an astonishing 16 straight games dating back to January 23rd. Over this same span, Milwaukee is far and away the NBA’s best team in Pts/Poss differential– but the Sixers aren’t so far behind at 6th. Philly’s been frustrating to bet on lately (1-3 ATS this past week), and we (me) didn’t have the best of luck with them in our ‘Best Bets’ article last Saturday. Still, the team continues to be highly rated despite their recent losses, and they have been the best offensive team on the road.

Milwaukee has been excellent lately and has played especially well at home this year (20-11-1 ATS, 27-5 SU). But we’re not playing the team, we’re playing the number. These two teams have a history of playing each other close, and the 76ers aren’t so far behind in the NBA’s hierarchy. Further, neither team has a glaring matchup advantage in this contest, and Sixers’ C Joel Embiid will arguably be the best player in the game tonight (see here for 538’s RAPTOR Player Ratings). Let’s take the points while we still can– back Philly to keep this game close, having an outside chance of winning outright.

Bet: 76ers +5.5 (-110)

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