NBA Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (12/25)
NBA Christmas is upon us once again. The schedule-makers put together some delicious matchups for every fan to enjoy. Let’s take a look at the five games on the slate for Sunday and find some best bets.
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Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks
Like every year, we get Christmas kicked off in Madison Square Garden. This is sneakily the best matchup of the day with two of the hottest teams in the league in Philadelphia and New York. The public is coming in heavily on Philadelphia, but I actually like the Knicks here.
Philadelphia is off to a 19-12 start, but they’ve had one of the easiest strength of schedules in the first part of the season. They’re a good team but don’t let the difference in records fool you, these teams are much closer in adjusted net rating.
One factor I like in the Knicks’ favor is their ability to secure offensive rebounds. They rank third in offensive rebound rate and against an average defensive rebounding team like Philadelphia, they can take advantage of second chances and potentially get Joel Embiid in foul trouble, which could derail any chance of the 76ers pulling this off. In addition, offensive rebounding equalizes the fact that the Knicks aren’t a great shooting team, 25th in eFG%.
In the previous matchup with these teams, the Knicks won the rebounding battle, which led to a close win for New York on the road. Playing in front of a Christmas crowd at MSG, I love the Knicks to cover.
Pick: Knicks +2.5 (-125)
Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks
Lebron James matches up in a marquee tilt with Luka Doncic. Without Anthony Davis, who remains out with an injury, the Mavericks should win this game, but I’m going to focus on the total here.
In the absence of Davis, the Lakers have not been able to figure out what they’re doing on defense. Even before Davis got hurt, they had been struggling. The Lakers have flipped their identity from the early part of the season, where the offense couldn’t buy a bucket, but the defense was stout. They’ve now fallen to 18th in adjusted defensive rating, and the offense has picked up as the calendar has turned to December.
On the other side of the court, the Mavericks have been playing in some low-scoring games recently, going 4-0 to the under in their last four games. The trends would suggest we may be headed to another under. However, I like the Dallas offense to explode against the Lakers and, more specifically, Luka Doncic.
This will be Luka’s first Christmas game in front of the home crowd in Dallas. He’s the type of player that likes to put on a show when all the eyes are on him, and against a poor Laker defense, he should lead Dallas to a big game resulting in an over for the point total.
Pick: Total o229.5 (-145)
Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics
One of the biggest question marks heading into this game is the status of Khris Middleton. Currently, the line sits at 5, and regardless I love the Celtics here. Boston is on a bit of a cold stretch losing three of their last four games, but they’ve been the best team in the NBA all year. One small stretch doesn’t tell their whole story.
The Celtics still hold the league’s best-adjusted offensive rating, led by MVP candidate Jayson Tatum. If Middleton can’t go, Tatum has an excellent opportunity to go off here. Even against a Milwaukee defense that ranks third in adjusted defensive rating, Boston should have success putting the ball into the basket.
Defensively Boston presents matchups that most other teams cannot present against Milwaukee’s length. A healthy Robert Williams is the x-factor. If he is able to go, Boston can employ a two-big lineup to shut down the paint and take away Giannis’s strength. Even if he is unable to go, Horford is more than capable of stepping up on his own.
Injuries have kept this Milwaukee team playing a step below their potential. Once they can get healthy, they will present a tough test for Boston in the East. Until then, Boston is the better team and will showcase that on Christmas afternoon.
Pick: Celtics -5.5 (-110)
Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors
The Grizzlies have had this exact game circled on the schedule ever since losing to the Warriors in the Western Conference Semifinals. They want this as a revenge spot, and I like them to get it.
The revenge factor is big, but this line just isn’t right. Golden State has stumbled through the season in a huge championship hangover fog. With Steph Curry out of the lineup in recent games, the Warriors’ defense has gone from bad to worse. It’s resulted in an adjusted defensive rating that ranks 21st in the league, and that is heavily weighted with Curry. The Grizzlies will look to attack this Golden State defense and should have no issue scoring.
On the other side of the court, the Grizzlies have been the biggest surprise of the year on the defensive end. They’ve taken that next step on that end of the court to transform themselves into a real championship contender. By holding opponents to the third-best eFG% in the league, they’ve catapulted themselves to the top seed in the West.
The Grizzlies are the better team, and with the revenge factor, I expect them to cover this Christmas spread with ease.
Pick: Grizzlies -6.5 (-110)
Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets
The final game of the Christmas slate features the Suns visiting a Nuggets team that is finally getting healthy. Both of these teams have been strong on the season, but the Nuggets have been one of the best teams in the league at home this season, compiling an 11-3 record in Denver. I like Denver in this game, but I’m actually targeting the total as my best play.
Denver home trends have gone 10-4 to the under at home this season. This tracks, as Denver can be a tough road trip for any team. The elevation can be difficult to adjust to, and when teams are typically just rolling through for a night, away team conditioning can be a concern.
Another key angle that points to an under is that both of these teams avoid the free throw line, both on offense and defense. Taking away easier scoring opportunities will keep this game moving and lower scoring.
The fact that both of these teams are top-five adjusted net offenses has set this total too high. The trend of unders in Denver makes this play even more attractive and makes the under of 230.5 one of my best bets.
Pick: Total u230.5 (-110)
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